The brightest of them — former Ministers Abromavicius and danyluk, in 2014 came in the team Poroshenko of foreign banks. These former Ministers wanted their country to become more European, but they are ousted from government. Now they put on a debutant-populist.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko will soon pay for what they allowed their government officials to reject the reformers, of which he himself was involved in the Cabinet from the private sector for him after the victorious uprising (on the Maidan — approx. ed.) 2014. Some of them are pinning their hopes on “anti-system” candidate in the upcoming presidential election, comedian Vladimir Zelensky. Their hope is to return to power to settle scores (with enemies — approx. ed.) and to implement political decisions that have not been possible with Poroshenko.
A former economy Minister in the government of Ukraine aivaras Abromavicius and former Minister of Finance Oleksandr danylyuk is known for its resistance to corruption and his commitment to the “Western” path of development for Ukraine. Both work today with Zelensky against Poroshenko. I talked to them in Kiev last week. Their willingness to put on political “dark horse” tells us much about why and how Poroshenko failed as the leader of Ukraine.
Five years after the overthrow of the corrupt administration of President Viktor Yanukovych Ukraine — the poorest country in Europe, its place of the “first tail” contest only Moldova. The lack of improvement in the standard of living of Ukrainians pushing the voters of the country to search for new faces in politics.
Zelensky, known for his Comedy Quarter-95, and also in their television production acumen, has made a career out of ridiculing politicians. He also starred in the popular television series, where he played a modest teachers, which is the case leads to the seat of the President of Ukraine and which improves the life, breaking the usual management scheme. These merits made it the leader of the race. But against it, too many factors, so Zelensky still may fail in the race with Poroshenko in the first round of elections March 31, but the fight in the second round, which will probably take place in April, probably will reduce Zelensky face to face with the current President.
The third most realistic candidate among colorful “Ph. D.” deck 44 of the person is prone to populism of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Another problem Zelensky is a lack of capacity in the real political issues. However, the managers of his campaign tried to cover up his weakness, making him strictly to stay critical of the establishment. They deliberately do not recommend Zelensky to delve into the specifics of the tax policies, or suggest steps to resolve the conflict of Ukraine with Russia. And finally, the third problem Zelensky is his inability to look convincing in the role of leader of the nation during the war.
But, probably the big Achilles heel Zelensky is its connection with forced to leave the country by the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. This billionaire is accused of in Ukraine that he brought the assets of his Bank, called “Privat”. The Bank Ukrainians kept most of his savings, he was nationalized in 2016, the Bank’s assets revealed a hole of $ 5.6 billion. Owned by Kolomoisky television channel 1+1 — a major buyer of TV programming Zelensky. Long worked with Kolomoisky lawyer Andrew Bogdan is now working on the campaign Zelensky. A few of the guard that once guarded Kolomoisky, was seen in the provision of security services to the newly made candidate. I asked Dmitry Razumkov, the official press Secretary of the election headquarters Zelensky how to understand these coincidences. He said that Mr. Bogdan is a personal friend Zelensky. The presence of my fellow guards, he explained that they are working for a security firm associated with the channel 1+1 permanent contract. Well, what about business ties between Zelensky and Kolomoisky Razumkov expressed in that spirit that they do not involve any political or financial “debts” (which Zelensky would have to close in the event of his victory — approx. ed.).
Abromavicius danyluk and present your own explanation for why they chose to look at all these questions through your fingers and maintain Zelensky.
Abromavicius, who is a practicing specialist in private investments from Lithuania, was included in the new Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers in 2014. He is proud to answer any questions they carried out the reform of public procurement. To his credit — and even improved in the control system in thousands of Ukrainian predpriyatii still in castnia of ownership. He’s half cut inefficient state of his Ministry, transferring there the young people from the private and nonprofit sectors. The goal was to change the style of work of the Ministry.
But Abromavicius retired in 2016, a close Poroshenko accusing “realdice issues” that interfered in his reofrm for the purpose of preservation of corruption schemes. Today Abromavicius again in the private sector, and enthusiastically speaks about some of his real estate investments. But six weeks ago he met with Zelensky, who asked Abromavicius again to put your management experience to the service of the country, by helping him, Zelensky, to generate new ideas and keep in touch with investors, captains of business and Western partners. Brainstorming Zelensky and Abromavicius about the future political line, in case of victory Zelensky lasted about five hours.
“I found that it (Zelensky), we have a man, able to listen and learn quickly, but still a decent man,” — said Abromavicius. “All in Ukraine know what to do, but just don’t have the political will. Zelensky could embody the hopes of the people become a political platform through which people with the required political will could gain significant power.”
Zelensky has built its program on the basis of “crowdsourcing”: it is addressed to people in search of ideas and personnel decisions for his team and got more than half a million Soviets. Abromavicius said Zelensky quoted him the founder of Apple Inc. Steve jobs: “don’t make sense to hire smart people and tell them what to do. We hire smart people so they told us what to do.” Zelensky also encouraged Abromavicius that, if successful, he will abandon the Ukrainian tradition to promote up with us “their” in accordance with the degree of personal loyalty or kinship. And in General Zelensky managed to make a positive impression on the ex-Minister, although Zelensky may be poignancy in awkward formal-business communication: a well-known story when he forgot to wear a suit to important meetings with investors, meeting them in a t-shirt.
As for the Zelensky Kolomoisky, Abromavicius does not believe in the ability of the oligarchs to dictate the political line of the President-elect in case of victory Zelensky. It will be hard to do though, because before the next parliamentary elections in October that 2019 year will be no more than 100 days, and so even if Zelensky is the propensity to thank your business partner and sponsor, in this gratitude, it will be limited by political considerations. Why? Yes, because to ensure the victory of the movement “servant of the people” in the parliamentary elections Zelensky will have to play the role of the President convincing. The President elected by the people and ruling for the people — this must be his way.
Danyluk, a former investment Manager and consultant at McKinsey & Co Inc., was forced to resign as Finance Minister last summer, after serving two years in this post. During this time he undertook the important reform to change the procedure for charging value added tax (VAT). He stopped the abuses of the government upon payment of VAT for exporters. Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman fired danyluk for his “crusade” against two high-ranking tax officials, whom the Minister of Finance was accused of bribery. A month ago Zelensky pulled danyluk again in the light of God — the same as before you pulled Abromavicius.
“If there is a risk of Kolomoisky next to Zelensky, I this will not stand, because it would be very bad for my reputation,” he explained to me danyluk, shlestnuvshimisya with Kolomoisky in a fight during nationalization (Privat — approx.ed.). “But look at this situation more. Of course, I’m sorry that is not on the horizon for the ideal candidate. But I would not want to see Poroshenko elected for a second term, as this will be bad for the country.”
Ex-Minister hopes that Zelensky will take on the advice of a “radical agenda” that includes long-overdue reform of the court and security services, has long worked on the “rip-off” of private business. Abromavicius also expects a strong-willed moves from Zelensky of these that will strengthen the rule of law and stop law enforcement intervention in business Affairs. While Abromavicius expects strict adherence to the proposed IMF’s strict standards is very economical tax policy.
With Abromavicius and Danyluk on his side, Zelensky appears in a very different light than the last time he had a reputation for being politically incompetent candidate without a clear program, with hanging over him the shadow of Kolomoisky. Since Abromavicius, and danyluk popular among Western investors, philanthropists, and among foreign experts in Ukraine, Zelensky, standing beside them, suddenly has the intellectual power and aura of honesty expected.
Tomas Fiala, head of Dragon Capital, the largest investment Bank in Ukraine, explains their preferences size of spreads in selling securities, and hence the degree of business activity in the country. “Investors are telling me that if Poroshenko wins, spread “will shrink,” explains Fiala, whose economic reforms “early” Poroshenko inspired, starting in 2015, to invest $500 million of investment money from the Dragon and the other funds in the Ukrainian transactions, particularly in real estate. “If Tymoshenko wins, spreads will expand for 100 points. But if you win Zelensky, all will depend on what role his team will play Abromavicius and danyluk. If they hold the control, spreads will shrink. But if there will be people Kolomoisky, spreads greatly expand“.
Fiala expresses some doubts about Zelensky, who considers amenable to influences and inexperienced. But at the same time he sees and the two Ministers who “work well in terms of organization of meetings for him with the right people, lead them to a real training on the business issues.”
Both the ex-Minister do it all, but Zelensky has not promised them any posts in case of victory. “There is an understanding that they want to see us part of the team. But no detailed promises we have not yet given,“ explains Daniluk. Razumkov team Zelensky confirms this information, noting that he came to offer its services without a minimum understanding of personal perspectives. That is, the Razumkov joining the team, and had no idea what it can get done after the election.
Despite the backlog of the cartridge in the polls, the Poroshenko team is confident in his victory. All Kiev hung posters with the words: “the Candidates are many. The President of one“. This is the slogan that Russian President Putin has used during his campaign in 2019. The piquancy of the situation adds the fact that Putin is a real Nemesis for Poroshenko. People from the team Poroshenko told me that the President’s supporters there is no Plan B. Advisers Poroshenko has directed the parliamentary elections, but they do not mind admitting that losing in the presidential elections, the cartridge will have to be involved in parliamentary elections.
Himself Poroshenko has campaigned on a nationalist platform, waving his symbolic success: the strengthening of the battles of the Ukrainian army and the office of the national Orthodox Church of Ukraine of the Russian Orthodox Church. Poroshenko also raised pensions and suggested that the poorest Ukrainians monetary assistance in the form of cash subsidies.
In the camp Poroshenko over Zelensky laugh as on the project Kolomoisky, which stand alone waiting for new career opportunities of former members of the Cabinet of Ministers.
And yet there is something important in the determination of the two famous Ukrainian reformers to risk their reputation while white — all for the sake of the comic, which, however, is going to do some right things. Here they are: lower taxes, remove regulation on business, to introduce more measures of direct democracy, to deprive of deputies of inviolability and to make the procedure of presidential impeachment more affordable. All this populist impulses that the next Parliament is unlikely to take kindly. And yet…
“If populism is when someone fulfills the promises that others failed to comply, I’m in such a populism”, — said Abromavicius.
Pushed out of the system by a network of tightly bound friendship, kinship or just selfish relations, the reformers dream to bring the case to the end. “I in this case put so much effort, and the country takes, and not changing so quickly as I should be on my cost, — says danyluk. — I want to be able to just move the few remaining reforms in the category of “done” — and then to get a life”.
And he and Abromavicius behind — a successful business career. They do not consider themselves losers — they think of themselves as people interrupted at the very moment when they have just finished something very useful for Ukraine. Poroshenko did not know that, expelling them, he opened a new window of opportunity for Zelensky. Now that may appeal to those former enthusiasts of the first reforms Poroshenko, who wants to make the country more European.
This audience wants a more dramatic break with the past. She wants a meritocratic system of recruitment, which would have replaced the archaic, almost tribal method used to determine the “worthy”, which has remained in Ukraine since Soviet times.
In order to reach these voters, danyluk and Abromavicius is the ideal allies near wishing to attract such voters by the candidate. And if Poroshenko wins Zelensky March 31, he will win by sliding the score one point in favor of the old system.
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