The whole world’s attention in the past few days mostly confined to the Persian Gulf. But at the summit Big Twenty, which will be held this week in Japan, the topic of the middle East tensions will not be home. The focus will once again be a confrontation between the United States and China. This “clash of the titans” will define the international agenda in the near future. And, apparently, we are not talking about years and decades.
Another year and a half ago, the mood of the expert community was very different. Liberal think tanks in America and Europe claimed that it is necessary to remove from the political Board of the “trump factor”, and everything will return to normal. Namely, to the globalist model of the world in which the main role is played by the closely interconnected economies of the USA and China. This seemingly unbreakable bond described in different ways. The most characteristic terms for its designation was “Chimerica” (China + America) entered the British historian Niall Ferguson, and “G-2” (by analogy with the G-7 and G-20), appeared the light with the light hand of the American political scientist Ian Bremmer.
And in the court in 2019. American and European liberal globalists still pretend that trump and other leaders of the Western national-populism will soon be able not only to get occupied by them in electoral battles 2016-18 he chairs, but also to outlaw (for example, because they are all as one, are “Putin’s agents”). But what is interesting. In the US, nobody offers to jump back into the arms of China, as it was in 2017. And the EU cautiously monitored for the development of technological war between “castle on the hill” and of China, and the inexorable pace of the global Chinese project “One belt, one road” for Eurasia.
Trump and his associates managed to change mindsets and people of the West, and expertocracy. The concept of “China threat” has become mainstream. Sinophobia (i.e. fear and hatred toward China) has become as an integral element of the foreign policy of the US and its allies, like many other phobias of Western civilization, podvyadshie it at the time for very drastic action. This change in the resist only those politicians and media representatives who co-opted by transnational corporations, elites, put in his time on Chimerica, and then directly Pro-China lobby.
This should make an important clarification. The erosion of the liberal-globalist world order would have started and without strengthening alternative centres of influence. In particular, without turning China into the economic giant that spread its influence at least four parts of the world — Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania. Non-national capitalism, which not only increased the welfare of the citizens of the EU and USA, but also has deprived them of work, destroyed their families and their way of life, could not fail to cause a populist revolt that shook the whole world.
Donald trump, Farage, marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini and other “upstart” still would have appeared on the political horizon, and tried to overthrow the “global bosses”. Another thing is that the globalist elite were absolutely convinced that she is once and forever defeated. She relaxed, thereby giving a chance to the Chinese leadership to play a private, a very successful party on the world stage.
So by the time the Western populists began to come to power or, at least, to significantly influence the policies of their countries, China has joined the world economic and industrial-technological competition of Nations, which, according to the ideologues of liberal globalism, it is impossible in principle. I mean, really, how can there be competition if no national States, the middle class destroyed, and Google, Facebook and Apple provide a lumpen element digital happiness? In short, the West began to mobilize later. And because of the secrecy of Beijing, and due to fog, self-inflicted world’s elite.
Thus, the “Chinese threat” and the struggle of populists globalists is undoubtedly related questions, but still different. One of the main ideologists of tranism, a former adviser to the 45th President of the USA Stephen Bannon already in 2014 constantly repeats that “the Chinese question” is the “core of the struggle for Western Judeo-Christian civilization.” But the main tactical enemy of the Western Nations, in his opinion, are global institutions. In other words, war with China will still have (albeit on economic and technological front), but the war prevented to prepare the people claiming there will be no war.
The main component of the American sinophobia is a “factor advance” — the realization that China before the others started “pressing” a place under the sun in a new postglobal the world. Some experts believe that Beijing never intended to join in the “beautiful tomorrow” without borders and States. He took advantage of the globalization opportunity in order to be able to come to the moment when the liberal world order has run its course. That is the celestial Empire all deceived.
Perhaps the most notable theorist of the “Chinese fraud” is an American political scientist Michael Pillsbury, author of the bestseller “century marathon”. In his opinion, Beijing was only pretending to be the partner of the United States to receive temporary geopolitical bonus and time for internal development. Worst of all, the celestial Empire has pretended that the introduction of market relations and development of the modern technologies, it is gradually transformed to a state virtually indistinguishable from Western, the second Japan. The population of China, perhaps there will be some cultural differences from European and American (which is also good — “diversity” is welcome), but it will be completely to share the values of liberal democracy. The ideology of globalism liked their painted picture. And they looked mostly at her, not the real situation.
In fact, according to Pillsbury, technology or free trade did the Chinese, “Asian Europeans”. Moreover, since the 1970’s, when Deng Xiaoping announced a program of peaceful development of China, the CCP elite were making plans not only preserve their distinct socio-political system, but the transformation of Beijing into a new center of the world. Repeated U.S. proposals for joint management of the planet in the format of G-2 with China politely rejected.
The Chinese Communist party has consistently built a society that differs fundamentally from the West. Many experts believe that this society is totalitarian. So, Executive editor for The American Conservative, Kelly Vlahos compares it with the model described in the dystopia of George Orwell comes to the conclusion that the total surveillance of citizens and social ratings makes China even more “advanced” than the world of the novel “1984”.
But that’s the whole point. Before an Oracle was believed that such societies and such regimes do not last long. And then there is a stable superpower with a faster pace of development. Americans and Europeans suddenly found the Ground state, which lives absolutely by other principles and is at least equally equipped in terms of technology, as the United West. The Soviet Union at the time, caused similar concerns, but at the end of the 1970s, (incidentally, at a time when the global market was enabled China), it became clear that the USSR was not able to compete with the US and its allies — first of all, in the economy.
About China in America and Europe also provide a lot of information, which seems to be evidence that China’s going to fail. But the citizens of the United States (as well as EU) are increasingly aware of the fact that to predict the outcome of the confrontation with Beijing, including in space and in IT-technologies, it is impossible. And it only spurs sinophobia. Americans can be, and I believe that in the end will prevail in the clash with China, but more and more convinced that it will require no less effort than in the cold war.
Another factor influencing the growth of anti-Chinese alarmism is a serious change in public consciousness concerning foreign policy of Beijing. For a long time in the expert community was dominated by the view that the Chinese government fundamentally rejects expansion and closed solely on its internal problems. In any case, as long as the world continues to buy goods made in China and does not encroach on the internal Affairs of China.
Of course, that was an illusion. China has never ceased to consider himself the center of the world. And when to ensure their privileged positions needed external expansion, it immediately became part of the Grand strategy of Beijing.
Chinese corporations, bureaucrats, security officers and sometimes soldiers of the PLA are present on almost all continents. Perhaps with the exception of North America. In the United States did not go unnoticed and is pretty “hawkish” speech of the Minister of national defense of China Wei of Penha at the next Asian security summit (also called the Shangri-La dialogue) in early June, in which he, in fact, officially confirmed the intention of Beijing to use force to support its economic expansion.
American sinophobia, like ill-concealed recent Chinese anti-Americanism has become systemic. The political changes in the two powers can certainly at time reduce the degree of confrontation. But to return to the previous global status quo is unrealistic. Suvereniteta-oriented mood will intensify in Washington and in Beijing, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. elections and the decisions of the congresses of the CPC.
And, therefore, Russia has no other choice but to consolidate its own sovereignty and the formation of the third centre of power in the world. Otherwise, we will inevitably become an arena for a proxy confrontation between the two other great powers and risk losing all subjectivity in international politics.
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