“Let’s call a spade a spade: we are at a new cold war,” says the journalist Forbes (USA) , and if the China — U.S. enemy No. 1, Russia — the enemy number 2. Russia — the biggest risk to the us policy in the middle East, because Putin stands in the way of eliminating the governments in countries which the US considers hostile, namely in Syria and Iran.
Three long years ago, a group of investors — mainly from the USA, Europe and Russia — said the host of si-EN-EN Richard Quest (Richard Quest) that they expect sanctions against Russian banks and energy companies will remain forever. It was in Moscow at the conference of the VTB Capital “Russia calling!”. During the live broadcast of the Quest held on the stage of the event an informal poll. I chose the option “Two years”, believing that the state of Affairs will change, the new President of the United States. I was in the minority. I remember it well — over 60% of voters expressed confidence that the United States and Europe in the near future remove the sanctions against Russia.
Fast forward to the second year of his presidency trump. For a person who should be a puppet of Vladimir Putin, the sanctions and, indeed, has been preserved and intensified. Moreover, now, the United States withdrew from the Treaty on nuclear medium-range missiles that promises the beginning of an arms race. Meanwhile, Putin already said that, too, will leave the contract.
Last week a leading private Chinese telecommunications company “Huawei” (Huawei) found that its CFO Meng Wanzhou has problems with the us Ministry of justice. There insist on its extradition to USA to stand trial for the violation of the laws on sanctions against Iran and the theft of intellectual property.
I was in China in October. I met with representatives of the Ministry of foreign Affairs. It was an informal conversation, mostly about the fact that China does not want cold war, hot war or even a warm war with the United States. Let’s be friends. We (mostly approx. author) an innocent victim of Washington politics. When I mentioned that the United States sees China as a rival, they laughed. When I mentioned the “Huawei”, it was like they never heard of this company. She is a competitor “Cisco systems” (Cisco Systems) not only in Asia but throughout the world.
The latest allegations against the “Huawei”, according to the United States are an illustration of Chinese cheating. Something like the weapons of mass destruction.
On January 29, the office of the Director of National intelligence published its assessment of global threats. Syria — a favorite punching bag of Washington inglorious changers modes — there is mentioned 32 times. That’s more than ISIS*. It is mentioned 29 times. Even North Korea is mentioned less 27 times. Forever the bad guy Iran received 72 mentions.
The winners are China and Russia. China as a strategic competitor to the power of American corporations in Asia and regional rival in the sphere of soft power was mentioned 87 times. Russia took the second place with the 85th references.
Let’s call a spade a spade: we are at a new cold war. And it is difficult to understand how President trump and President XI Jinping suddenly it all changed. The table is laid, China and Russia — the new bad guys, more bad than Baghdad. Even worse than ISIS. China and Russia are large countries with real ambitions and millions of mouths. As much as we do.
According to National intelligence to counter democratic capitalism, China is seeking to promote “authoritarian capitalism”. The word “communism” does not appear anywhere in the report, 42 pages, although the ruling Communist party last year was found competent to recognize XI Jinping’s President for life.
The report also mentions “the coming ideological battle” between the two sides — a good way to paraphrase the phrase “the coming of the cold war.”
“This is much more serious than a number of contradictions on tariffs and subsidies, which can be resolved in a transactional way, the analyst writes, “Rabobank” (Rabobank), Michael Avery. — Now if the US government can see that China is on a global scale insists on an authoritarian model, which is contrary to US interests as this will help US to conclude the bargain, allowing the ideological system to survive and thrive? There is no logic”.
“Rabobank” has not left those who believe in the productivity of the 90-day truce. Produced last week, the threat assessment seems to confirm their bias.
3 Dec Avery wrote to its clients that trade the truce will be used to buy time for further escalation.
“We already have some indications that both countries take seriously into account this scenario,” he wrote. China recently announced a series of packages of fiscal incentives to offset the economic slowdown. Analysts of “Rabobank” I believe that this can also be seen as “mobilization” operation in anticipation of an escalation of Washington’s trade wars. By itself the ceasefire is due to expire on 2 March.
If China is the enemy No. 1, Russia — the enemy number 2.
Russia is the big risk for Washington policy in the middle East, because Putin stands in the way of eliminating the governments in countries that Washington considers hostile, namely in Syria and Iran. Russia is also a great way for any American commander to retain the funds allocated for the financing of the budgets of the Ministry of defence and intelligence, as well as for the related contracts to the private sector.
It is equally important that Russia is the most influential state oil exporter outside OPEC. The other most influential state-exporter outside OPEC, are… the United States. Russia has equally good relations with the OPEC countries, like the US, and in some cases, Moscow is perceived even more positively than Washington. This is certainly true in the case of Venezuela and Iran, and possibly Iraq. The Saudis can remain undecided, and the United States know it.
But today the main competitor in the commercial sector is China. Nothing compares to its scale and impact on pricing.
“Huawei”, “Zed-ti-I” (ZTE), a financial giant, billionaire Jack MA “Ant financial” (Ant Financial), and a host of other companies about which you never heard, are now serious rivals. Chinese brands in Asia are becoming increasingly influential. Investment in China spread across Asia. Previously, it was America’s role. Now between them there is competition.
Smart city, which makes bogotá the Colombian-based mostly systems “Huawei”, not “Cisco systems”. Regardless, stealing the “Huawei” American and European technology to so quickly achieve success or not, his decision should stand trial. The US government, however, decided the case on the merits: the Chinese are stealing. That is why their technology has advanced so far in such a short time.
“Most American companies previously did not want to take such aggressive action against intellectual property theft in China because of fears that it will affect their business in this country,” writes Steve Dickinson (Steve Dickinson) for “China law blog” (China Law Blog).
They feared that if they complain, they are ostracized, and they would lose their market share. Meanwhile, new competitors and former business partners was creating similar products without them.
“Can I do chemical product and cooperate with Chinese firm, watching as the partner goes and makes my product,” says Ravin Gandhi (Ravin Gandhi), Director General of the company “Dzhi-em-em nonstick koatings” (GMM Nonstick Coatings), which in 2016 was acquired by Japanese chemical engineering firm “Showa Denko” (Showa Denko). “Dzhi-em-em” creates patented chemical formulas for use in kitchen appliances such as grill George foreman. China is one of their biggest manufacturing centres.
The main problem for foreign companies in China is not a weak economy, and unfair trade and business practices. The competition is getting tougher. And now many are ready to call it unfair, at least it was in the past. It’s getting better now, but some market players think that it’s too late.
“With the deterioration in us-China relations this concern, it seems, is spent, and decades of pent-up resentment against Chinese practices in relation to intellectual property may result in a cascade of claims from the USA and the EU, and others,” says Dickinson about the “Huawei”.
He calls it the “new normal”.
Last week the FBI arrested a Chinese employee of the Apple (Apple) for theft of trade secrets relating to unmanned vehicles.
On Tuesday, Blackrock Investment Institute (BlackRock Investment Institute) called the biggest political risks this year. Problems in the Eurozone have been in the first place — by the way, they always blame the Kremlin. Then the tension in relations between NATO and Russia, including around the actions in the middle East.
It looks like trail straw under a new cold war.
The impact of geopolitical turmoil on the world markets may be short-lived, the authors of the report of the Institute of Blackrock, led by Tom Donilon (Tom Donilon). Their estimate is based on 50 high-risk events that occurred, beginning in 1962, when in the midst was the first cold war.
“Markets are more sensitive to geopolitical risk as the world economy was slowing down,” they write.
He’s slowing down.
From the report of National intelligence from January 29:
“In the coming year, threats to U.S. national security will increase and will be diversified, partly because China and Russia because they, respectively, are competing more intensely with the United States and its traditional allies and partners. This competition covers all areas, including the race for technological and military superiority, and increasingly also for the values. Russia and China seek to shape the international system and the dynamics of regional security, influence on politics and the economy of States in all regions of the world and especially close to its borders.
The relations between China and Russia are in greater harmony than ever since the mid-1950s, and they probably will strengthen further in the coming year, as a number of their interests and threat perceptions converge, especially in relation to ongoing U.S. unilateralism and interventionism, as well as promoting the West’s democratic values and human rights.
As soon as China and Russia seek to expand its influence in the world, they are destroying the once-established safety standards and increase the risk of regional conflicts, especially in the middle East and East Asia.
“Development and application of new technologies will create both risks and opportunities and the U.S. economy will be threatened by the slowdown in the global economy and the growing threats to the economic competitiveness of the United States””.
And now, you have succeeded. Welcome to the 1980s.
* prohibited in the Russian Federation organization
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