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The American intelligence community needs to understand how to develop the fruits of the revolution open sources and other advanced technologies faster than the opponents of the United States. At the same time, it should seek a balance in fulfilling their constitutional and ethical obligations relating to privacy and civil liberties.
To say this is easy, but doing is much harder. Again, take as an example the information from open sources. In the middle ages when paper was a sign of wealth, and the books were kept in monasteries, the knowledge was valuable, but its creation is expensive. Now content creation is so cheap, that according to some estimates, the amount of stored data on Earth doubles every two years. That is, in the next 24 months the mankind creates as much data as appeared in history. Intelligence agencies always had to deal with finding needles in haystacks. Today, these stacks increase exponentially.
Many private companies offer “monitoring of public opinion” in social networks and other solutions that use information from open sources. They are able to quickly analyze this information. Associated with the CIA’s venture capital firm “Incute” (In-Q-Tel) has given start-up capital for the development of many promising technologies. But that technological innovation is rooted in the intelligence agencies requires considerable effort, because in this area, entrenched in their positions contractors who have their own financial incentives are designed by individual order and outdated information technology systems, as well as sclerotic, risk-averse procurement policies in which businesses, especially start-UPS, it is difficult to work with the state.
The data collection and processing is only half the battle. Collecting information is useless if analysts are not able to determine which information is credible and what is not. The accuracy of the intelligence is a serious problem even when we are talking about classified information. But in the world of open source the issue of reliability becomes much more serious. Bloggers, the people’s reporters and other providers of online content work under the influence of different stimuli, but prefer the speed and provocative information, not it’s correctness and validity. As a result, significantly increases the risk of error.
Add to this the growing challenge of timeliness. In the era of Google, when information from anyone about anything is enough to click the mouse or hold your finger on the smartphone screen, the content from open sources is increasingly going into the hands of politicians without any confirmation or analysis. For this reason, the authorities can draw conclusions and instead wait for a less operational intelligence assessments that thoroughly checks the reliability of sources and provide alternative interpretations of important events. To stay in demand in such circumstances, intelligence analysts are forced to work faster. Sometimes this is to the detriment of analysis depth. Competition with open source also forces analysts often give short-term intelligence assessments and to abandon the analysis of the long-term prospects. The shortage of such a prospective analysis are already evident.
To separate fact from fiction over time, will be more difficult. Artificial intelligence has given impetus disinformation revolution. Russian disinformation in the run-up to elections in 2016 bears no comparison with what will be possible very soon thanks to the “fake deep” as a fake audio or video as close as possible to reality. Researchers from business and science are already creating very realistic pictures of non-existent people. The group from Stanford and Washington University have used artificial intelligence technology and simultaneous movement of the lips to create a fake video of a fake Barack Obama, pronouncing the phrase that the former President never uttered. Access codes simplified “fake deep” is rapidly spreading. Some programs are so simple that even a high school student who didn’t study computer science, can use them to create a convincing forgery. Even the quality of computational resources required to create a sophisticated “fake deep”, you can now buy at a low price.
Not necessary to be seven spans in a forehead to understand how much manipulation can be done with the help of these technologies. Imagine that you are watching with a kind of authentic video, in which a foreign leader tells of a secret program to build nuclear weapons, or presidential candidate on the eve of elections corrupts the child. All of their objections can easily be put aside, as the evidence seems irrefutable. In the end, it is better to see once than hear a hundred times.
Before intelligence agencies get up the enormous task of exposing the “fake deep”. Unlike other fakes, “fake deep”, such as processed in photoshop image, it is very difficult to recognize, thanks to the technique of artificial intelligence invented by an engineer of Google in 2014. It is a machine learning algorithm called genetic adversarial network. This approach involves the juxtaposition of the two computer algorithms when one generates the image, and the second tries to notice fakes. Since the algorithms are trained, competing with each other, any detector deep fake will last a very short time, because it is still outwit. Deception and misrepresentation have always been part of espionage and war, they never reached such a level of accuracy, coverage and speed.
Good understanding of the strategy
The American intelligence community has taken some important steps to adapt to this rapidly changing technological environment. In 2015, the then-CIA Director John Brennan (John Brennan) has created a new management, which deals with the digital innovation as well as conducted a thorough audit of the organizational structure of the CIA, to bring together experts in digital technology and Analytics open source with traditional collectors and analysts of information. National geospatial-intelligence Agency has launched an initiative on artificial intelligence to accelerate and improve image analysis. The CIA, NSA and other agencies moved to the cloud, creating “a synthesis environment of big data,” which allows analysts to quickly and efficiently search vast amounts of information. There are other changes, but they are classified.
This is a promising effort, but some measures to remedy insufficient. The intelligence community needs a comprehensive strategy to preserve the intelligence advantage of the United States in the new technological era. The strategy of national intelligence for 2019 did not meet the objective because it is complacency, and complacency. It contains obscure calls for “greater integration and coordination”, “more efficient to use partnerships” and “develop transparency, protecting information of national security”. Innovation there is only half of the page.
The strategy of national intelligence in a new technological era should begin with a presentation of the distinctive strengths of the United States and methods for their use to gain long-term benefits. Today’s discussion on U.S. foreign policy focused mainly on our shortcomings. The participants paint a picture of an isolated and vulnerable countries, which are superior to the ruthless and efficient dictators. In a new intelligence strategy from such an approach must be abandoned. Instead of envy autocratic despots, we must first recognize that America has a lot of things such that no one of her opponents, and that these opportunities more than compensate the flaws.
The United States is superior to their opponents in many areas and parameters. An extensive system of alliances, including the partnership “Five eyes” with the participation of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Britain, expanding global capabilities and the potential of the United States. Diverse and ethnically diverse population gives a natural advantage in intelligence gathering intelligence around the world. Open society and democratic values, the USA has long been to facilitate the free flow of ideas and help to persuade foreign States to join the cause. And the innovative ecosystem of America is still unmatched incubator of revolutionary technologies.
But to fully exploit these strengths, we need large-scale effort that involves the intelligence community and with the involvement of companies in the information technology, civil society and science. To lead this reform work of a reputable Commission, established by Congress and operating under its control. It is impossible to predict what ideas and initiatives will emerge in the process of this work, but some areas of high interest are evident now.
When it came to organizational matters, the exploration of open sources should be conducted within their own Department. Currently, the collection of this information through the Enterprise open source Association with the CIA. But such organization has its disadvantages. It’s like the force in the army. Intelligence from open sources is a part of the bureaucratic apparatus, which, naturally, gives preference to other priorities, and this prevents the execution of tasks. Secrets of the CIA will still dominate, due to which information from open sources will be considered minor. Intelligence on open sources will not receive the necessary attention and funding as long as the will to be part of the CIA or some other existing Agency.
Not less important and human capital. Today in the intelligence agencies staff selection system from a different time, when the officers-the scouts all his life worked for the state and made his career there. Today in some departments of first-class professionals leave, after working there for only a few years, and never come back. Along with them goes the knowledge, training and experience. And many do not come to special services due to slow and bureaucratic process of selection and design. It is especially difficult to recruit and retain information technology specialists. The intelligence services need more decent shots, not just those who sit there in their pants. They need to recruit young professionals from both the public sector and private, to improve relationships, mutual understanding and mutual trust between the American information technology industry and intelligence community.
In fact, overcoming the division between high-tech industry and intelligence agencies is an important task in the field of national security. When a former employee of the military Department of the Edward Snowden exposed the surveillance program, it has created a huge and very deep lack of trust in the leading companies of information technology, such as “Apple”, “Facebook”, “Google”, and so on. Twitter does not want to have anything to do with intelligence authorities, having concerns about how you will use his information. A senior Manager from a major technology company told one of the authors of the article that he believes American intelligence agencies enemies that look like agents of the Chinese government, and therefore they should stay away.
The intelligence community, for its part, is increasingly concerned about the willingness of the American IT-companies to sell their products and services to foreign customers who do not share democratic principles of the United States and do not recognize their national interests. Google, which most advanced and perfect methods of artificial intelligence, stated that it will not cooperate with the Pentagon on any project from this area, which can be used in weapons manufacture. However, the company thinks about how to help the Chinese government in the development of information retrieval systems with more sophisticated instruments of censorship. Russia has widely publicized the project iPavlov deep learning, which uses the advanced equipment, a California-based company for the production of chips “, NVIDIA” (NVIDIA). “We sell them all” — has recently stated publicly Vice-President of business development. To overcome this conflict of commercial incentives, privacy and national interests, it is necessary to establish a healthy working relationship between the American intelligence community and Silicon valley.
The main principles
Many things must be changed, but more importantly what you need to keep unchanged. The main priority of the transformation process is to not harm the most valuable quality of intelligence community: its pursuit of objectivity, regardless of political consequences. Thanks to this principle, an entire generation of politicians and leaders trusted the intelligence community. Not in the sense that exploration is always right (it isn’t), but the fact that she had no secret motives, their political goals and the party of bias.
This key principle has questioned the President, who publicly humiliates his scouts and openly disagrees with the assessments of intelligence agencies. This behavior puts pressure on the intelligence community, who might be tempted to start the assent of the President is to act on the basis of evidence and proof. While the intelligence community under the supervision of the Director of national intelligence Dan Coates (Dan Coats) committed to its ideals and principles. But the risk is very high. American intelligence agencies are able to develop the optimal strategy for exploration in the new technological era, but if they lose their reputation as objective, impartial and professional agencies, the nation will cease to value them.
Michael Joseph Morell (Michael Joseph Morell) — a former analyst with American intelligence. Education: Gronski University, bachelor of Economics; Georgetown University, master of Economics. Morell was with President Bush on 11 September 2001 when al-Qaida* (banned in Russia organization — approx. ed.) invaded America. He was with President Obama on may 1, 2011, when was Osama bin Laden. Morell started his career at the CIA in 1980. He’s 14 years as an analyst engaged in East Asia, and eventually was appointed Director of the analytical Department at the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America. Morrell conducted intelligence briefings for President George W. Bush, worked as Executive assistant to CIA Director George Tenet. He was Executive Director of the CIA, Director for intelligence, Deputy Director of the CIA. Double-acting Director of the Central intelligence Agency. Morrell works in the Advisory Board “Committee to investigate the actions of Russia”, created by Hollywood Director Rob Reiner and the senior editor of “the Atlantic” David FRAM.
* is banned in Russia organization.
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