In 2019, a private investor will almost certainly have to live in the face of volatility in the global stock market, it should be prepared in advance, agreed the participants of the business Breakfast “the Macroeconomic forecast for 2019 Best investment strategies”, organized by newspaper “Vedomosti”.
To predict the future is becoming increasingly difficult. “Next year will be the year of the speculator, the world in General has entered a period of turbulence. Volatility will increase in all market areas, safe havens will not, except gold” — shared his feelings the President of investment group “Moscow partners” Eugene Kogan.
Cautious professionals suggest even in the bond market. Despite this, the opportunity to earn the investors, the analyst of “Veles capital” and the author of the Telegram-channel “Bandovic” Arthur Nawrocki. “But if you are going to distribute investment next year and beyond, of course, this limitation of the urgency of the papers. Now is not the time to risk it,” he warned. According to his observations, investors have begun to shift funds from long papers in short, trying to get away from risk. “A smooth exit from long securities means that the pessimistic expectations for next year are being formed”, — said Nawrocki.
Next year the trend will intensify. According to Navrotsky, from the standpoint of debt load, the maturity of its debt and accumulated assets in a favorable situation are the bonds of companies in the oil sector, and for the more risky investments may be suitable and subordinated debt of Russian banks — Sberbank, Gazprombank, the agricultural Bank, and then — VTB. Among the attractive issues he called the bonds of VTB maturing in 2022 and the eternal bonds of Gazprombank. “The interest of these papers is that our banks will be beneficial to repay them in the transition to Basel III, plus it is very expensive funding,” explained Nawrocki.
Interesting bonds and other emerging markets, he said: “From a fundamental point of view, they (the developing countries. — Ed.) everything is balanced, the obligations they have either medium-term or long-term, so stress scenario on foreign currency liquidity, we do not consider while in the baseline scenario”.
Where to go in the stock market
The most interesting investment ideas on the stock market you need to look at the ocean, recognized professionals. “The greater the share of government in the economy, the less interesting is our stock market,” said Kogan. Geopolitics largely weighs on the Russian market, added other experts. “However, sanctions against Russia are already included in the prices for Russian assets, because the market is already prepared for the worst scenario,” — said General Director of “septem capital” Denis Kuchkin.
However, the us stock market the situation is alarming, the head of the analytical center of the St. Petersburg stock exchange Pavel Pakhomov. In August this year, the us market has already set a historical record for the duration of growth, the S&P500 index grew longer 3452 days. “Everyone understands that to grow indefinitely be a correction, a change of trend. On the other hand, the economic situation in America is not yet cause any alarm: good tax reform, the second quarter reporting of the companies was the best in the history of the U.S. market for the entire history of observations since 2007, the third quarter is the best since 2009 the growth rate of net profit on corporate sector,” says Pakhomov. But investors can’t relax here: a further rate hike in the us economy, the slowdown in the profit growth of companies and the consequences of trade wars US-China — all of which can stop the growth of the market.
So next year, Pakhomov advised to buy shares of the U.S. market, greatly fallen in the previous periods, however promising from the standpoint of good fundamental performance of companies. According to him, soon could fall stock is much more costly over the last time US companies — Amazon, Apple, Visa, Mastercard, the potential fall is 30-50% in the next year.
Also attractive in the U.S. market Pakhomov called the shares of the telecommunications company AT&T, launching next year 5G technology and acquired the company Time Warner. “This protective action, in which volatility falls less, plus a dividend yield of 6.5% — it’s a very interesting story,” explained Pakhomov.
Interesting, Starbucks, the last three years performatively their own coffee in the cafe “Italian type”: “Now the trend is that fewer people go to restaurants, but there is a need in the evening with friends to enjoy a glass of wine and talk.” Ford, sosredotochitsya in the production of pickups during the fall of sales of cars, gets with this segment’s profit continued Pakhomov. One of the best investments in his words, — the shares of Toshiba and carrier American Airlines. After the October sales of paper carrier are at their lower levels, so a very interesting investment, says Pakhomov.
Modern American market is highly exposed to the effects of transactions of robots engaged in asset management, Kogan recalls. He recommends in such a situation not to lose your head and just invest in a relatively inexpensive, preferably with a solid cache. In this sense, remains an attractive Apple, with $200 billion of cash, says Kogan. “They are beneficiaries of rising interest rates, plus, in hard times they will have the opportunity to buy something”, — he explained.
“Protective assets may be companies with high dividends and understandable businesses, those who have the money and the miners. Let’s see what all the dips stands as a rock and even growing? This is the same Barrick Gold,” added Kogan.
Stock up on cash
The main task of the investor in difficult times — to develop a portfolio of investments, do not get tired to repeat professionals. “If a person is engaged in the investment, not put a priority savings, then I would become in the next year 50% of their money to keep in the cache: about 70% in dollars and 30% in euros. The remaining 40% is a long government securities the U.S., Canada and possibly Germany, and 10% risky assets with discretionary income,” says Michael Khan, managing Director, IR “Algo capital”.
The cache must be, because in 2019 there will be many opportunities to buy something, agreed Pakhomov. In his portfolio of about 30% is in cash.
“By investing, you should consider the cost and payback of capital,” added Nawrocki. In any case, the optimal strategy investment allocation does not exist, should be based on risk appetite, objectives and capabilities of a particular investor, warns Cohen.
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