At the end of April one of the base scenarios was that a trade war, or rather, its active phase is over, and the parties agreed on the terms of cooperation between the US and China. However, in may the situation has deteriorated: first, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the ban on Huawei, subsequently moved its introduction until August.

Ilya Pitalev / RIA Novosti

Uncertainty in what will happen in August. If the parties agree, or will ban for Huawei, as it’s about a year ago happened with the Chinese company ZTE, which has banned the sale in the United States. Knowing all this background, it is logical to expect that the company Huawei is, and plan a and plan B.

Almost all gadgets Huawei Honor running on Android. According to various estimates, last year the company ranked either 1 or 2 place in the number of units sold in Russia. The influence of the gap should be decomposed into 2 components:

Already produced and purchased, which will not change anything at all: to support and work will continue.

New devices that will be released after August 2019. There are major risks. If in August, the decision will be finally adopted, for the company there is only one conditionally positive way — to release its own OS alternative to Google apps and high-quality replacement part of the services (in this case replacement Youtube is impossible). Then, perhaps, the impact will be not so strong that the company left the market of mobile technology. If the alternative is uncertain, then market share will go to other players.

Think to the last to keep the strike, and there were no sales to reduce inventory, will not. On the contrary, all say that the device is not affected by the ban and the user in no way will be limited. Rumor has it that the new OS will be distributed over the air and seamlessly installed on tablets and smartphones. Thus there are output restrictions in the USA.

If the ban by the US will not be canceled, the market share will be lost. Who exactly it will go is difficult to predict. Likely to be a division of those who tried the “Chinese” and is not afraid of the alternative to the Samsung/Apple, and those who are afraid of such consequences in the future and go to well-known brands to avoid risks restrictions. And then it all depends on the reaction of China. If you take the most hardline response with symmetrical ban for American companies, China is quite capable to destroy Apple: all production is concentrated in China, transfer it quickly to other countries impossible. By installing a reciprocal ban, China will deprive Apple of all — in the fullest sense of the word. Of course, this decision will affect the employment of employees of Foxconn. We, as users lose and Huawei, and Apple, which will lead to a lessening of competition and global crisis in the computer market. This is the worst option.

The signal from the United States on claims against Huawei is not today resulting story. Huawei is a world leader in communication equipment. Apparently, this is not like US who are trying to regain the lead. The accusations of espionage, nothing confirmed, heard for years.

Because in China Google is banned, the question is, what to replace or what to use before Huawei is not worth it. Moreover, after winning the lawsuit against the search giant services “Yandex” as the preset is added to smartphones and tablets. In any case, “Yandex” will depend on how well the OS will be made by Huawei and you believe in it users, whether there will be sales of devices at a high level or not.

Author: Alex Klochko — acting Director of customer relations Department IFK “solid”

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