Moscow, September 30 — “News. Economy” China poses a serious challenge to the United States, and in Washington for a long time thinking over how to answer.
America’s perceived Imperial China as a potentially limitless consumer market. Washington supported the Republic, when the nationalists against the Imperial Japan. After world war II, China under Mao Zedong has become a serious threat, second is that the Soviet Union, the authors of publication The National Interest.
History voprosam mutual fear of the Soviet Union contributed to the rapprochement between the U.S. and China. After the death of Mao, China has undertaken significant economic reforms that led to rapid growth. Autonomy China has increased dramatically. Political freedom was lacking, but many Americans hoped that the revenue growth and expansion of private enterprise, will promote political liberalization.
However, after the suppression in Tiananmen square, China has moved to unstable authoritarianism. Challenging the influence and control of the Communist party of China could lead to a prison term, however, despite this, in scientific circles there were discussions on political issues. Expanded foreign contacts. Was created a semi-independent press, able to withstand the abuses of local authorities. Protests against the offensive actions of local officials have become commonplace. The reputation of the Communist party of China collapsed amid growing corruption.
Now President XI Jinping is rapidly pushing China in the opposite direction. Concerned about the decline in the credibility of the party, he introduces an increasingly totalitarian system, which would have envied even Mao, especially its technological innovation. Among those who particularly inspire fear: forced displacement of over a million Muslim Uighurs in camps of re-education, suppression of the slightest public hint of dissent, the introduction of “social credit”, which aims to regulate practically all aspects of human life.
At the same time, collapse of economic relations with America. China is engaged in commercial espionage, suffers widespread theft of intellectual property, discriminare American firms. The company has not received the promised Chinese investment, now approve a trade war administration trump or even getting out of China.
China has become more aggressive internationally. Beijing is not threatening the foundations of American security, however, creates a much more serious problem for American influence in East Asia. China is building up its armed forces, are able to challenge the traditional dominance in East Asia to China’s borders. Beijing is increasingly assertive stance against its neighbors in territorial disputes, relentlessly seeking to expand the power over Taiwan and Hong Kong. He takes the initiative “One belt and one road” to achieve economic power and to create military bases around the world. China also moved closer to Russia in order to oppose Washington.
The result: a growing perception of “China threat”. The cold war convinced everyone that the Soviet Union is a serious danger that must be opposed. Republicans and Democrats joined forces to support such alliances as NATO in their quest to wage war and to resist the uprisings, supported by the Soviet Union, and the governments in the third world.
The collapse of the Soviet Union led to a world in which America has no more competitors. Despite economic growth of China, the majority of Americans the threat is not felt. For many years, Beijing has stressed its “peaceful rise” and its military power has remained rather modest force. Now, however, these two factors have changed. Concern more turns to fear on the background of the rhetoric of the trump of war and trade.
Serious, influential politicians have now called upon to treat Beijing as an enemy. Many people do not like that China has joined the WTO. Policies determined to catch up, in defiance of China.
Trade war went beyond the economic argument. The President tweeted ordered all American companies to leave China. Some lawmakers seek sanctions for a range of alleged crimes: crimes in the sphere of security to human rights violations. A number of conservatives called for the violation of economic relations, which may weaken China.
This policy in Beijing perceive as a threat. The result can be a rapid deterioration of relations, a much more controversial in political and military matters. This strategy can be justified only as a last resort, when there is no possibility to establish peaceful relations.
However, despite governmental tensions, relations between the two countries remain rather close. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese students studying in America. Millions of tourists travel in both directions. Maintained extensive trade, even if it has suffered from trade restrictions. Despite the presidential tweet, most American companies are not going to leave China.
Chinese communism is practical, cynical, and deceptive. After the party was joined by the capitalists, foreign firms have accumulated wealth, government officials have focused on the retention of power, the Communist party became more and more to resemble fascism than communism. Trade disputes between the US and China being rather mercenary than ideological reasons. All this is very different from the cold war. Thus, America needs to respond differently than during the cold war.
China is facing serious challenges: economic slowdown, huge debt, demographic crisis, social divisions, exacerbated by inequality, a growing trade war, which involved the world’s largest economy, costly disruptions in business environment caused by widespread corruption and fraud, and the growing discontent among the partners initiative Beijing’s “one belt and One road”.
Even Chinese officials are surprised by the extent of hostile attitude towards China’s policy. China will be great, maybe the greatest power. However, the approach to this condition will be difficult. In General, the future of this nation is difficult to predict. The economist and Bloomberg columnist Tyler Cowen noted a long list of false predictions in the past about the course of China, referring to the statement “China will always find something to surprise us.”
From 1949 to 1976 when Mao’s China was a real humanitarian hole. Immediately after the revolution began a bitter political, economic and social conflicts and turmoil, which was marked by a wave of repression and executions. The great leap forward turned into a jump the country into the abyss, with its massive famine and death. All this time the Chinese people suffered from the idiotic collectivist failed economic ideology.
Fortunately, this world is gone. China after the reform process 35 years later was completely different. This is not a free society, but its people were much freer than before. And there was every reason to hope for a revival of liberalism, which is left behind after the massacre in Tiananmen square.
Alas, this world is also gone. And now it’s almost completely in the hands of one person: XI Jinping.
It is extremely effectively expanded its powers. However, his rise to the top put it on the edge of the abyss. His enemies are Legion. Anyone who’s been penalized or is associated with his predecessors, wanted to take revenge. Removing limits on the presidential term, XI has raised fears that it might turn into another Mao. Many are unhappy with his approach to the war and the disputed territorial politics in the Asia-Pacific region.
If si will turn off the system one way, his successors will go the other way. On the future course China is impossible to say anything definite.
China is already forced to adapt. For example, aggressive foreign policy, XI was surprisingly inept, she pushed the East Asian countries not only to America but also India and Japan. Taiwan is probably lost forever to China, the repression, the latter only widened this gap. The only option remains military action. The determination of Beijing to save an unlimited influence provoked mass demonstrations against the control of the Communist party of China in Hong Kong.
In the economic sector, the number of American companies are already planning to diversify its supply chain, aiming to make transactions outside China. Even Apple is considering moving from 15% to 30% of production in Southeast Asia, which has become a cheaper alternative to China. Only a few firms tend to follow the presidential Directive on sales. Future growth will be more limited, especially against the background of rising wages in China, which has forced companies to seek more competitive supply of labor. Another reasons of such changes in addition to rising costs are trade tensions, anti-American attitude in the political environment, restrictions on market access, domestic competition and the search for alternatives in other places.
Beijing poses a serious threat to American values and interests. However, he is not the enemy. And his future is not determined. The worst thing would be to start a confrontation.
The basis of U.S. policy must be interaction. Washington should not forget that the competition between China and the United States is political, not military. In this struggle, America should enjoy all the benefits of a free society. Washington must choose a policy that can aggravate the internal contradictions of China and to stimulate the desire for change in the direction of liberalization. As for politics and security, the US needs to step back, to force cooperation of the Union state and to create a deterrent against Chinese aggression, which Beijing is trying to set against the American intervention. U.S. officials should cooperate with Asian and European allies and friends to develop a policy aimed at the restriction and not containing China. These efforts should include the compromises necessary for a settlement of disputes with Russia.
Never underestimate the challenge posed by Beijing, however, to exaggerate its not worth it. America needs to adjust the position in relation to China. This nation is a serious problem, but it is not able to suppress. And on its action you can give an answer, hard but not panic.
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