We live in a period which is unique, and we need to collect all the pieces of the puzzle to understand it.

A lot of noise for nothing?

Exactly this idea is suggested by the analysis of statistical data of trade between China and the United States. We present figures of the American administration: if we compare the figures of the first half of 2019 first half of 2018, it is clear that the American imports from China have increased over the year from $ 250 billion to just over 260 billion. While U.S. exports to China slightly declined: 64 billion to $ 61 billion. It turns out that most of the hype, little has changed, due to the repeated attacks of the President of the United States. Although the Chinese promised to reduce the negative balance of bilateral trade, in reality this did not happen.

China continues to subsidize exports to the United States and diligently taking steps to bypass the new duties. Big promises and loud statements without the loss of American sales, this is his alpha and omega. It should be noted that a large part of Chinese exports are transferred to China manufacturing us companies. We are talking about the General wealth, and do not expect that Qualcomm and Apple will soon abandon the well-established system with hundreds of local subcontractors and service providers. So trump may be any rage and splutter, but everyone understands that he loudly barks but doesn’t bite. On the return of production a lot of talk, but in practice is not seen nothing yet. That is, all of this is only an appearance? The most important point was the lock of the developed countries of purchase China high-tech enterprises. If we were talking about human rights or discrimination in the field of use, it would be a different story. But while the death of pigs leads to an increase in meat prices, Beijing gives up in Hong Kong, Huawei is going through hard times, and the depreciation of the yuan is pushing up oil prices. Does it really matter? Now no one who could prevent the re-election of XI Jinping for a third term, but, in all logic, he should think about a successor.

Euthanized world
A Chinese proverb says that if the problem is unsolvable, you should start with in order to look at himself in the mirror. In the US, with a few tall trees hiding the forest. Some of the Europeans who made large purchases in the US, came back saying that had no idea that acquired ossified structures with non-replaceable by the user, receiving huge salaries. The position of the United States is escalating, and we need to recognize that dominance in various fields reflected badly on the country’s competitiveness. They should go back to the roots, and they have a whole continent to open the world: Latin America.

But look at Africa: in the waiting room of a Kenyan or an Ethiopian airlines two-thirds of the passengers were Chinese. Some say that long-term Chinese funding was less than in the past, but this is primarily due to the fact that such loans served to establish relations. Now they are not so necessary, as was already established strong trade ties. Africans know that the relationship is mutually beneficial. Europeans and Americans have gone from Africa without a fight. France is mired in social spending and no longer has the funds, and German businessmen can’t see past annual reports and declared the market is not sufficiently profitable.

The Russian threat?

“Russia will recover, because it has oil.” It said so in the beginning of 1990-ies, but today what remains of Russia minus the black gold? GDP of the Netherlands. The risk is great because the price of oil is kept only because of political will. Major players like Iran, Venezuela and Libya now mean little. When they return, prices will fall, and the world will no longer need negative rates. Russia will have to join Europe, if she doesn’t want to end up like Mozambique or Angola, to be locked in the role of supplier of oil to China.

And Europe?

… from the Atlantic to the Urals, as said General de Gaulle. But it will have to overcome not one obstacle. The bear need to clean the claws and others to overcome the fear. Europe also requires diplomacy and the army. “A broad program”, as, again, he said to the General. France can’t, Germany didn’t want to. Who will explain to all that Berlin has to build digital industry first needs a strong armed forces? They are the first and best customers of these technologies. Otherwise, we will remain under the outer wing. But isn’t that a reference to the basics of German? She felt very comfortable in the days of the Holy Roman Empire, which collapsed into many States without their own foreign policy.

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