This year, Apple became the first in the history of the United States Corporation with a market capitalization of one trillion dollars and the most expensive — at the moment. However, they also lead in the ranking of companies with highest net profit in Fortune Global 500. In the back of the Apple breathes Amazon, which also reached a market value of nine zeros. My third “trillionaire” may become Microsoft, the cost of which exceeds $ 850 billion.
It is crucial that it is not just the richest companies. This structure, which investors appreciate. And the list of companies by industry is slowly but significantly changing.
As it was before?
…At the beginning of the tenth year of the Corporation inferior to the energy sector and financial institutions. So, in 2011 at the top was Exxon Mobilе costing then two times less than Microsoft today 406 billion. They are inferior to Apple and the next three places were taken by the Chinese oil and gas company Petro China (which now looks far not as powerful as 10 years ago), a representative of the same industry, Shell and Bank ICBC. Five years earlier the three of leaders was made up exclusively of energy: Exxon Mobile, GE and Total.
As of may of this year, Exxon Mobile just closes the top ten the most expensive companies, being the only Corporation of this kind in this list.
That looked like such a list a hundred years ago in the USA. In 1917, the most profitable and important sectors for the American economy was the steel, oil, gas and mining. The capitalization of the largest companies in these industries already measured in billions of dollars, if you count in the price of 2017. So, the richest Corporation, U. S. Steel, was worth more than 46 billion — three times more expensive than the telecommunications company AT&T, which was in second place.
The third place was occupied by oil Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey, which cost a little more than $ 10 billion. Exactly 50 years later, in 1967, the list was headed by IBM, the former at the moment the only technology company in the top ten. In 2017, the top ten in more than half of it consists of technology companies.
Such lists are a perfect illustration of the preferences of the market and the essence of the era, the economic history of the world over the last century. Silicon valley displaces from Olympus oil barons, the automotive giants and other representatives of the real sector.
On the one hand, it is clear: oil, gas, cars are necessary for life and for the economy, but there are other requirements to satisfy which can only technology. Smartphones, Internet access, online banking, grocery delivery service — almost always this is not a luxury but everyday life.
On the other hand, there are also more prosaic reasons. For example, the price of oil: in 2011, they remained at the level of 100-110 dollars per barrel, falling by half by 2016 and reaching $ 80 today. Under these conditions, the oil company is unlikely to be the most expensive in the world.
Technology companies that have reached a certain level, it requires less material resources for growth: technology can replace some sections of the real workforce. Who is easier and cheaper to increase their power — Shell or Amazon?
Apple and Amazon jostle leaders in the energy and automotive industries and without a doubt, some time will be on the top. But hardly their profits will continue to grow exponentially: for example, the IMF report this year stated that sales of smartphones have reached their peak and will continue to decline.
In 2016, Time magazine gave its forecast on who will eventually catch up and overtake Apple, since it already shows excellent growth. Experts do not doubt that the future of cloud services, innovative transportation and Finance. Potential rivals Apple they called Salesforce — one of the market leaders in CRM, the electric car manufacturer Tesla Motors, payment systems Visa and Mastercard.
This year the forecast in the format of the advice the investors gave financial portal GoBankingRates, the list of which over 10 companies and not just American. The author believes that the future of e-commerce, solutions for cyber security and other IT technologies and transport. In this list are predictable were the veterans of ratings Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Tesla and two Chinese companies — shark online retailer Alibaba and the Internet Corporation Tencent. Also included in the list developed by Adobe experts in network security, Palo Alto Networks, a manufacturer of Nvidia graphics cards and the Argentine giant e-commerce site MercadoLibre.
However, in the foreseeable future, the top ten most expensive companies to use names from other fields. For example, only have to open up the potential for the transportation services Uber, Lyft, Didi Chuxing.
Probably the next step in the development of this industry will integrate inside it, for example, between services, taxi services and airlines. Uber two years ago began to use avtopilotiruemy taxi.
Loud applications success can be expected from the leaders of the Space industry as a Service office and coworking operators WeWork, Knotel, Industrious, Convene. The need for what they offer — a flexible infrastructure for more efficient operation of companies will be relevant for a long time. This is potentially one of the largest markets in the world along with e-commerce. A variant of the industry — providing together with office spaces additional high-margin services outsourcing functions.
Another large and promising market, attracting large-scale investment, FINTECH, where should look to Ant Financial, Revolut, Stripe, Robnhood. Yet turn to the full him to prevent overregulation of the market and a mismatch of regulatory norms in different countries, which is difficult to scale FINTECH company. Promising segments — online payments and transfers, loans, insurance (Insurtech), managing capital.
Louder declare itself to companies from healthcare, which is very heterogeneous and consists of a point running startups.
In fact, everyone who works in Healthcare now, are divided into R&D and User Experience. First create revolutionary products and tools (e.g., exoskeletons like Ekso Bionics), but most of them buy a giant like Merck or Pfizer (as Rigontec). This is logical, because a small team of scientists get access to the vast budgets and a developed laboratory infrastructure.
User Experience-startups working to improve the process of customer interaction with the industry. Medical insurance may have more transparent pricing and more convenient to use (unicorn Oscar Health), buying medicine can be more enjoyable and effective process (Capsule, Pillpack), as well as the sale of contraceptives by prescription (Nurx).
Thus, in the future rivals of the current leaders in theory could be not only their direct competitors for the segment of the market (Tencent already more expensive than Facebook, and the capitalization of Alibaba is higher than Walmart). Why? Customer expectations are now formed every time he interacts with any brand or service, so companies need to regularly compare themselves to each other and to monitor consumer experiences not only within the industry but also outside. The worst competitors are not the same, who looks and behaves the same — the danger comes most often from related industries.
Then only harder
Over time corporations will become increasingly difficult to compete, because the average lifespan of companies in principle decreases. According to the report Credite Suisse, now the life expectancy of a company listed in S&P 500 is about 20 years old, and in the middle of the last century it was three times more. One of the reasons the authors of the report called automation.
The speed of technology is growing rapidly, to keep up with them more difficult, many will have to go the distance. For example, the advent of automated machines has a negative impact on the insurance industry: these cars will be less likely to get into accidents, and therefore, reduced insurance costs, reduced insurance premiums, income will fall insurers.
What is the danger of globalization? The ratings of the largest companies in the world already does not coincide with the lists of the richest corporations in the U.S., because rivals American players are increasingly Chinese and Indian.
For example, a technology Park in Bangalore can be considered a very good analogue of Silicon valley: here is the largest IT company of India, Infosys. The Corporation is one of the fastest growing economies in the world now has more than a hundred of their own development centers on three continents.
All these factors demand that modern corporations two qualities which format they are not peculiar — velocity and agility. Adaptability to constant changes and speed of decision — making- who do not have time today, the ineffective tomorrow. Even internal metrics, companies should focus on speed — how quickly to solve the customer’s problem as quickly delivered the products on display, and so on.
Interestingly, increasing the speed of internal processes helps the same automation: technologies that don’t kill corporations, will always make them stronger.
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