Paul Gorodnitsky on why the actor has updated this privacy policy and that it will change in the confrontation between the messenger and the state.

Telegram suddenly made against the terrorists. Now messenger will provide a special services numbers, and IP addresses of those suspected of organizing attacks – at least it says so in the new version of the privacy policy.

Again: Telegram promises to help if someone comes with a ready-made judicial decision on a specific person. While such cases were not – this fact is underlined separately.

After Russian media picked up the news and published a bunch of notes with similar titles (“Telegram be sent to security services user data”), from the shadows came out Pavel Durov, who said that Russia this story does not apply – the Russian secret services do not get any bytes because of Telegram in our country outside the law.

And then there are two further script.

The ideal scenario: the FSB, the court and Roskomnadzor finally stir

Pavel Durov has actually made Russia a third world country. Now it turns out that a state that is so flush against terrorism, itself cut themselves off from the offer of assistance in the fight against terrorists.

So there is a chance that Russia will accept the new privacy policy as a reasonable compromise: forget what happened before, remove the block, and then turn to Telegram if there is a court decision on potential terrorists. Everybody wins.

Realistic scenario: mutual silence

The FSB still need the keys to decrypt messages. The FSB understands that the grant is impossible, because the messenger used not only in Russia.

More FSB sit hard-nosed men in suits who really don’t like to lose. And those wonderful people from the FSB wanted to spit on users and the reputation of the country: they sit in the best case, “you”, so the Telegram lock they did not move.

In short, everything will remain as before – a couple of quotes from Roskomnadzor (Zharov already respectul Durova), a couple of days of discussions in social networks, and then it bent. Users of Telegram will continue to sit through proxies (sometimes it is not needed), the audience of the messenger will slowly increase (thanks to the adequate App Store and Google Play), and the government will continue to pretend this situation is normal.

Why the film is ripe now?

In my opinion, the most interesting thing about this story is that time update our privacy policy. Durov could easily add these lines back in March-April – such a move definitely would make an impact on the mood of the FSB, and perhaps the court’s decision. Many experts claim that Pavel V. agreed to transfer data to the secret services only for one reason: he needs to Telegram, which attracted billions of dollars in ICO, guaranteed not disappeared from the app stores. And the line about the fight against terrorism – the requirements of those markets who have to comply.

I am quite sure in another: the item appeared for Russia, despite the fact that the actor denies it. Just Paul is an experienced consultant who knows how important it is to bide your time and shoot in the quietest moment.

Note: in the midst of the locks he just stood up together with users and reflect the impacts of Roskomnadzor. Then there was the action with airplanes, for her help with MTProto, and after – silence. And now the film correctly took the arguments and in fact offered a truce on his terms.

From the strategy point of view it’s just brilliant. From the point of view of the result view, but the chances of unlocking definitely increased.

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