To catch up and overtake in two five-year — want Russian officials, according to the draft “development Strategy for electronic industry till 2030”. Within ten years, the domestic electronics should be around the leading States — the United States and China — the most advanced devices and doubling the current share of the Russian and world markets.
But if on paper the plans are impressive, the prerequisites to their implementation is not obvious. The stores are practically no domestic computers and smartphones — entirely electronics from China, USA and other countries. Failed to transplant the technique of “home production” and officials over the past few years of the notorious policy of import substitution came to a standstill.
The government has recently put forward a new initiative to introduce a single register of Russian electronics. It needs to stimulate the development of enterprises and in General to give an understanding of what can be considered our gadgets. But in the initial stages of the project faces serious obstacles.
“Profile” has tried to understand the realities and prospects of electronic industry, turning to the representatives in charge of industry Ministry of industry and trade, as well as employees. Some of them have agreed to comment only on condition of anonymity.
The label on the case
Although the conceptual Russian electronics — the legacy of the Soviet, it had to be created from scratch, after “dashing 90‑e” research institutes and factories went bankrupt, closed, redeveloped. The first significant step towards the revival of industries whether it was adopted in the early 2010s, the program “Development of electronic and radioelectronic industry for 2013-2025”. As set out in the plan, the share of domestic electronic products in the domestic market was expected to grow to 40%, and the world — to 0.8% (compared with 17% and 0.3% in 2011).
However, the foreign policy crisis of 2014 has confused all the cards. National priority was declared to be the policy of import substitution, and the program had to be postponed until better times. However, import substitution and showed the plight of the industry. When I needed to replace foreign computers and smartphones in the domestic counterparts in the distant future, but right now, it became clear that independently produce the necessary equipment of the Russian industry is not able to. Even when development formally exist, there is no guarantee that it will be possible to make them accessible to everyone.
Was supposed to start work provide their own equipment at least government agencies, it is a matter of national security. But the history of the last years show that there can boast of nothing.
So, in 2016 the company “T-Platforms” won the tender of the Ministry of interior for the supply of 10 thousand personal computers “Tavolga” processors “Baikal-T1” for 357 million. “T-Platforms” put the required number of devices at the end of 2018, but the Ministry took only one fifth. CEO Vsevolod Opanasenko was arrested and charged with failure of terms of delivery, to release him even after the request of the Ministry of industry and trade and Ministry of economic development. Case details were not disclosed, but we can assume that the “T-Platforms” has not coped with the task.
Another example: at the air show “MAKS‑2019” concern “Automatics”, introduced all-in-ones “Elbrus 801 M” and “Binom-KA” with chips “Elbrus‑8” produced by the MCST. They are positioned as sirsasana from hacker threats to computers, which may be of interest to power and state structures. And “Bean-KA” even combines the two computer — based on the Russian “Elbrus‑8” (isolated system for internal use) and on the basis of one of the standard chips American production (for comfortable work with usual programs).
At the air show “MAKS‑2019” concern “Automatics”, introduced all-in-ones “Elbrus 801 M” and “Binom-KA”. The design looks good, but the lines for the mass production of such computers in Russia simply does not
Ramil Sitdikov / RIA Novosti
But can we expect in the near future mass production of these machines? “In Russia, in principle, there are no lines for the mass production of such processors and computers,” — he questioned in an interview with “Profil” Deputy General Director of one of the enterprises of the industry. According to the source, “Elbrusy” going abroad, the Taiwan plant TCMS.
Approximately the same situation with mobile devices. The most vivid story happened here in the early 2010s is the infamous “Chubais tablet”, e-book production of the German-British company Plastic Logic. In the development has invested the state Corporation “Rosnano”, suggesting to replace it the textbooks in schools and universities, and in 2011, the tablet prototype was even shown to Vladimir Putin. Soon, however, the project covered.
“We really couldn’t do tablet. So it works just compete with the iPad, we coincided,” said the head of RUSNANO Anatoly Chubais, in 2015. Domestic tablets in schools remains to be seen.
However, the government continue to discuss the idea of “safe” gadgets for officials. According to the latest news, it is planned to equip the 1.4 million civil servants cell phones and domestic OS “Aurora”. And last month, the Reuters Agency reported the government’s intention to buy 360 000 Huawei tablets with the same “Aurora” for the national population census 2020.
The “Chubais tablet” is another sad example of the capabilities of the Russian electronic industry. In the early 2010s breakthrough technology demonstrated to Vladimir Putin, but that was it
Stanislav Krasilnikov / TASS
Even if these projects materialize, to call them native will be hard. Operating system “Aurora” — originally Finnish design, in 2017-2018 purchased “Rostelecom”. To assemble the devices themselves in Russia also does not work, it means that the process will be launched in the Asian factories. In the end, really Russian such devices will only brand — roughly speaking, the label on the housing.
By the way, a couple of years ago the FAS and Prosecutor General’s office has documented cases “about” Russian defense enterprises purchased under the guise of domestic equipment by foreign — in fact, their suppliers, receiving goods from abroad, just added Russian label, so it could participate in tenders. With all the absurdity in this scheme was a reason: sometimes the quality of the Russian components to endanger entire projects in the defense sector. So, in 2016, the media reported that the replacement of chips in satellites “Sphere” in the domestic made them bulky and very heavy for available rockets. While none of the satellite “Sphere” was launched, a debut is expected in 2022.
Sometimes officials have agreed at least to minimize the share of electronics from countries declared sanctions against Russia. For example, to this end, Russia from 2016 began to actively buy the Chinese base station (Huawei) to replace Swedish (Ericsson) and Finnish (Nokia). But in some places for the production of “hostile” countries is no alternative. For example, the Railways for marking cars continue to use the development of the German company Balluf. According to interlocutors “Profile”, the last order state-owned companies on RFID tags, there is no word on what they should be manufactured in Russia: foreign and cheaper, and better.
Russian folk chips
The events of recent years have shown that the development of domestic electronics is not enough to answer the main question: what is it? Answer it is called new initiative of the government. By decree No. 878 of July 10, 2019, it ordered the Ministry of industry and trade before January 1, 2020 to launch a Single register of domestic electronics — by analogy with the national registry to be launched in 2016. The new project will determine what telecommunications equipment to the Russian and to use instead of foreign analogues, and some foreign and thus threatening security.
“Originally from the registry a good idea to support domestic producers, including in the format of import substitution”, — says specialist of the Department of industry standardization of plant “vanguard” Alexei ulugov. However, the criteria of “otechestvennoe” just became a stumbling block. If you look, to make “our brand” product is almost impossible, some component is bound to be foreign elements of the microprocessor, memory, power supply, etc.
“Now the enterprises are free to determine the criteria of “otechestvennoe” and they are reviewed by the expert Commission under the Ministry of industry and trade, and there is already approved or not, — explains close to the industry source, a former employee of the Ministry. — So we have a huge number of related criteria. A single register is designed to unify them: a certain percentage of localization, such components should be made only on the territory of Russia and so forth.”
However, to develop criteria that will suit all leading companies of the industry, according to experts, is impossible: every factory has its own business model, depending on the presence or absence of production facilities or contracts with foreign suppliers. Some of the products in any case will be “cut off”, and then support the producers may result in only an additional pressure on them.
Meantime, 878 m resolution formulated General rules. To produce Russian products, only those companies that have more than 50% of shares belong to Russian legal entities. To him should belong the right to the use and upgrading of technologies, rights to software and documentation. But most importantly, manufacture, Assembly and installation of components should also be organized on the territory of the Russian Federation. Not enough capacity? So by registry…
Most of the Russian electronics manufacturers engaged in the execution of the state defense order. Chance to gain a foothold in the civilian market they have a little
The registry must only be the preparation for the implementation of the new state program — “development Strategy for electronic industry till 2030”. Her project a year ago, presented to the Ministry of industry and TSNII “electronics”. Now, as reported by the “Profile” in the press service of the Ministry, he is at the stage of coordination with Federal Executive authorities and state corporations. When accepted the final version of the strategy, the Ministry has not commented.
According to the presentation of the strategy, its mission is “to ensure the transition of electronics from survival in closed niches to develop national and global markets.” In a press-service of the Ministry “Profile” added that this document “should define a holistic image of the industry and aims to increase the pace of development of electronic industry”.
Targets look impressive. The revenue of Russian enterprises in 2030 should be about 3.26 trillion rubles, an increase of almost five times compared to 2017 (714 billion) and their share on the domestic market increased from 22% to 40%. While the strategy recognizes that the capacity of the Russian market is not sufficient to achieve the target share in the world, so plans for expansion abroad. Exports are expected to grow more than ten times from actual 220 million rubles in 2016 (97% electronics for military use) to 2.37 billion in 2030. as a result, the share of Russian electronics in the world, according to the plan, will rise from 0.6% to 1.5%.
But that’s not all. The authors of the strategy note that “traditional markets will not provide sufficient demand for Russian products”. Therefore, Russia should focus on “production has no analogues products for “markets of the future”: nanotehnologii, virtual reality, sensing and robotics, artificial intelligence, quantum computer… in a word, in the most grandiose theses elusive strategy turns into a scenario of a fantastic film. It seems, somewhere near the Russian cosmonauts moved to a base on the moon — in fact, according to the promises of officials from another Agency, this event should also occur around the year 2030.
Gadgets assembled in China, and cheaper, and better
Philippe Roy / AFP / East News
Without the state — anywhere
But to understand how feasible such plans do not need to be a visionary, to know quantum mechanics or even to be able to collect computers. Today’s reality in the market of electronics hardly gives insight, through which we conquer the global technological tops in the next 10 years.
In total, according to Association of developers and manufacturers of electronics, in the Russian sector there are about 3000 enterprises. For comparison: in China the number of manufacturers of electronics, according to various estimates, counted in tens of thousands in the mid‑2000s. If you talk about the main product of the industry — processors for computers then in Russia, they are developing less than 20 companies, including the already mentioned MCST and “T-Platforms”. Among the most famous “Micron” and “Angstrem-T” (growing up from under the wing of the NGO “Research center”), a relatively young “Elvis”, “Milandr”, “Module”. As a rule, in parallel, companies are creating other electronic components: microcontrollers, RFID tags, readers.
The most advanced Russian chips, “Baikal-T1” and “Elbrus‑8” designed by technology 28 nm. While most of the domestic developers have mastered the 150, 110 or in the best case, 65 nm (the smaller this value is, the faster and efficient processor and consumes less power). According to the strategy, mass production of chips with 28 nm process technology is expected to 2026-2027 years, and 7‑nanometer chips should be available before 2030. Although in the initial project tasks were set up 14 nm to 2025 nm to 5 2030.
But even if you manage to conquer the top bar of Russian electronics is doomed to yield to foreign analogues. American Intel Atom chips, which are placed in cheap computers and laptops, with 2014 made on 14‑nanometer technology, and relevant flagship AMD chips for computers and Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung smartphones — 7‑nanometer. The appearance on the market of 5‑nanometer processors from the same companies can be expected within three, maximum of five years. The working station “Elbrus 801‑RS” today is more than 300 thousand rubles — for the money you can buy a monoblock Apple iMac Intel Core i9, the highest performing chip in the lineup the latest generation.
In these conditions, according to interlocutors “Profile”, private capital of Russian electronic plants of little interest, no one is eager to invest in the notoriously unprofitable business. Theoretically stimulate the flow of funds into the industry can be economic measures: tax incentives for investors and businesses, favourable financing and so on. However, if they assumed, that in the existing draft strategy says nothing about this.
But there are high hopes for nutsprogramme “Digital economy”. As reported in the press service of the Ministry of industry and trade, events in the framework of the program will be “one of the key markets for Russian electronics industry”, and created the registry and the strategy for its implementation. Very “Digital economy” too ambitious: for example, it declares the objective for 2025 is to create a developed IT-infrastructure, which will cover all government offices down to the municipal level and 100% of “socially significant infrastructure”.
In other words, is seen in only a single source of funds designed in the future to lead the electronics industry to global prosperity, state investments. By and large, so the industry works and today. Without public procurement, most industries would be deeply unprofitable, recognized experts. According to TSNII “Elektronika”, in 2017 in the performance of government contracts were involved in 87% of all enterprises in the industry. And in terms of revenue the market is represented by the holding “Russian electronics” (27%), KRET (13%) and “Automation” (3%). All of them together with their member companies (about 250) of the state-controlled Rostec. That is headed by Sergei Chemezov, the Corporation is almost 50% of the industry.
Of private enterprises is the prominent role played by the holding company RTI (a 1.5% market share), owned by AFK “System”. However, soon the market may see another major player. In July we completed the establishment of a joint venture “Roselektronika” and “RTI Microelectronics” called “Element”. Initially, the company focused on the development of technologies for electronic documents (digital passport, a unified ticketing system for public transport) and labeling. Then in plans of creation of electronic component base for various IT assets.
It is curious that a controlling stake remains in private “RTI Microelectronics”. “This format of public-private partnership will allow to allocate budget money for the purchase of modern technological equipment for the production of domestic chip,” explains “Profile” Alexey ulugov. That is the import of the latest technologies, which would not be the person to do directly through public procurement, can be arranged through the “Element”.
Another area of public investment should be the development of Zelenograd chip manufacturer “Angstrem-T”. Last year he was declared bankrupt, but now plan to restore production capacity. As reported in a recent interview, who oversees the defense industry Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, from the budget already allocated $300 million (20 billion rubles), and extension pledged $1 billion (approx 67 bn). It is noteworthy that, according to the official, the emphasis is not on advanced process technologies (28nm and smaller), and larger chips. “The market suggested solution: for the industry of the Internet of things become relevant again 250-90 nm technology, does not require submicron technology. In the West even began to restore obsolete power — a paradox!” — has explained Borisov.
It is not excluded that the Russian authorities are ready to invest in outdated technology for another reason: the really promising developments is simply no money. In the Recode study says that only one company, Intel in 2013 spent $10.3 billion, and in 2017 — $13.1 billion on scientific and engineering research (R&D). According to Borisov, the Russian microelectronics for 2011-2018 were funded in the amount of 81 billion rubles (about $1.22 bln) — as the saying goes, feel the difference. And the budget of the national programme “Digital economy” 2018-2024 years amounts to 1.63 trillion rubles (about $24.5 billion)…
What to expect in this situation? Most likely, on a rare premiere is not the most modern devices, the development of which is conducted under the banner of national security, and the number of copies produced barely allows you to ensure departmental needs. As for the projects in the market of consumer gadgets, it remains to wish them good relations with Asian neighbors, which, like it or not, our electronics will depend on more than one year.
©Anton Belitsky / TASS
How would made in Russia
Despite the almost complete absence in Russia the production of computers, smartphones and other consumer electronics, from time to time on the market there are devices that can be called domestic development.
The most sensational of them — the YotaPhone, a range of devices from Yota Devices with e-ink display on the rear panel. Released in 2013, the gadget has gained popularity because of the high prices and questionable design. The second generation YotaPhone looked tidier, but it is not conquered the market. Just sold less than a hundred thousand devices from both generations. A few years later shot brand Inoi. In the first quarter of 2019, he even became a leader in the segment of low-end smartphones. The company has developed devices not only Android, but also on Sailfish OS — the OS of the future “Aurora”. Inoi media called the main contender for the production of smartphones for Russian officials, but official confirmation of this information yet. Recently gaining popularity the device of “Yandex”. In 2018, the company introduced “Yandex. Station” which gradually began to acquire a smart home ecosystem. In addition, have entered the market, although not a hit “Yandex. Telephone” is a budget device with built-in services of the company.
In Russia there are other brands that includes developers of smartphones and other portable electronics: BQ, Texet, Famous, Itel. But all these devices are assembled from components produced abroad. And the Assembly is made in China.
Electronic holdings of Rostec
1. The Holding Company Ruselectronics
More than 50% of Russian electronics, including smart city and smart home. 143 unites enterprises and research organizations.
2. Concern “radio-Electronic technology” (KRET)
More than 70 companies in the development of military and civilian electronic equipment.
3. Holding “Schwabe”
Opto-electronic and laser technology for aircraft, aerospace, scientific and medical enterprises. Brings together 64 of the enterprise.
4. Concern “Automatics”
Developments in the field of IT security. Unites 20 companies.
5. “RT-Design technologies”
Implementation of promising IT-projects, introduction of new technologies in the field of public procurement.
According to open sources.
As the processor will be called…
In documents, publications and professional everyday life found three different terms: electronics, electronics, microelectronics. Formally, these concepts are clearly separated. Electronics — communications equipment, Telecom equipment. Micro-electronics — processors, memory modules and other circuits. Well electronics combines both these concepts and can incorporate the widest range of products, starting with the same chips and ending with smart washing machines.
When it comes to the evaluation of the industry, the boundaries of the concepts strongly eroded. There are phrases like “electronic and radio-electronic industry” and IC communication devices can be enrolled as electronic products. There is some inaccuracy in the figures because different sources use their own methods of calculation. To complicate the situation and the fact that the electronics industry is inextricably linked with the defense industry, information about which is classified.
For example, according to the Zion Market Research, the global consumer electronics market in 2017 reached $1,17 trillion. The draft strategy of the Ministry of industry and trade is three times a large assessment of $3.24 trillion, but, in addition to consumer segment includes industrial and computer engineering. The share of Russian goods, according to the strategy amounted to 0.6% in conversion at the average exchange rate turns out to 1.3 trillion rubles. Although literally on the next page indicated that the combined revenue of Russian e-business in the same year amounted to 1.1 trillion rubles. In other words, in statistics found many discrepancies, but in General you can get an idea about the trends.
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