Moscow, 17 APR — “News. Economy.” On Wednesday was published a block of macroeconomic statistics in China, data has surpassed a consensus-forecasts of analysts. A large number of news came from the corporate fields. Mainly we are talking about the quarterly reports.

[PICTURE] [/PICTURE] U.S. stock futures growing up in the premarket. On Tuesday, the key indices gained 0.05-0.3 percent. S&P 500 break above the technical level of 2880 points. Expect that the index may test the historical high (2940 points). On a pullback to the nearest support — 2850 points.

Positive factors

Chinese macro data. Almost all the figures were better than the consensus forecast of analysts. GDP grew in the first quarter of 2019 6.4% yoy, as in the previous quarter. Industrial production grew in March by 8.5% against 5.3% a month earlier. This is the maximum rate over the last five years. Retail sales also pleased. The index rose at the fastest rate in the last six months, by 8.7% yoy. Undoubtedly, such indicators on sales, production and the economy in General, impact measures of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

The monetary policy of world Central Bank. Now the derivatives segment indicates a 60% probability of keeping the key rate unchanged until the end of the year, the remaining 40% have the possibility of a rate cut. Since the beginning of the year oil prices have noticeably recovered, but inflation expectations in the US remained subdued. According to the forecast of ECB, the interest rate will remain at ultralow levels until at least the end of 2019, the Euro zone’s Inflation slowed in March to 1.4% per annum compared with 1.5% in February, as expected.

The US and China. This weekend the American Minister of Finance Steven Mnuchin said that the country “closer to final round” of trade negotiations. Earlier Donald trump promised something “monumental” in the coming weeks. The trade deficit States with China decreased markedly in February, imports fell by 3.6%, exports increased by 21.6% (m/m).


The slowdown in the global economy. Risks to the economy were reflected in the comments of the fed and the ECB. Regulators fear that, therefore, has softened the rhetoric. The government of Germany for the second time since the beginning of the year significantly worsened the assessment of the rate of growth of the economy in the current year. Now it is expected that GDP will increase by 0.5% compared with the January forecast of 1%. In the fall of 2018, it was expected that growth would be 1.8%. Looking forward to the publication of indexes of business activity (PMI) of the Eurozone countries on Thursday.

Corporate news

Netflix (+2,5%) continued to actively expand its customer base in the first quarter. The number of new subscribers of paid services in January-March increased by 9.6 million, which was a record growth rate. The company expected to attract 8.9 million customers. Netflix forecast for EPS was below consensus, the company actively spends on content creation and marketing.

Morgan Stanley (+2%) in the last quarter has reduced net profit by 9% and revenues by 7% relative to similar period of last year, however, the results exceeded market expectations. The world’s largest provider of computer services IBM (-4%) reduced earnings for the third quarter in a row.

Qualcomm shares soared on Tuesday by 23% after the press release that the company has agreed with Apple to end all trials. The patent war has been going on for the last two years. Apple pays Qualcomm money reward, the amount of which is not disclosed. The company announced the signing of a license agreement for a period of six years, as well as a multi-year agreement for the supply of chips. Today quotes QCOM grow another 13%.

The chart of the S&P 500 index ended Tuesday, the day timeframe

[PICTURE] [/PICTURE] Oksana Kholodenko, an expert on international markets BCS

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