Moscow, August 12 — “Conduct. Economics” In the 1980-ies and 1990-ies Steve jobs making predictions about how technology and the Internet will affect everyday life. Some predictions were surprisingly accurate. So, the founder of Apple predicted the emergence of virtual assistants and e-Commerce giants long before they appear.
Today you wouldn’t leave the house without a smartphone. But in the mid-1980s and 1990s, such a device as the iPhone, had yet to see the light, as well as some current giants of online media such as Facebook and YouTube. To say that the technological landscape was different, would be a significant understatement.
And yet Steve jobs had already evaluated the impact of computers and the Internet on our lives in their speeches and interviews. Among the predictions he made in an interview, there were some very accurate.
The ubiquitous Internet
During an interview with Wired in 1996, Steve jobs predicted that the Internet will be adopted and will be used by consumers around the globe.
In an interview in 1985, the year Steve jobs said that the most important reason why people will buy home computers — a “relationship with a nationwide network of communications.” His comments came four years before Tim Berners-Lee led the work on what would later become known as the world wide Web, and in the five years before the first web page the story was published online.
In 1995, Steve jobs also predicted that Internet startups to compete with established corporations because it will allow you to sell products directly to consumers and not to invest in the distribution of resources.
“It’s very exciting because it [the Internet] is going to destroy vast layers of our economy and make available a presence in the market of very small companies, equal to the large companies” — he said in 1995 during a speech at the Computerworld Information Technology Awards Foundation.
Today, startups like Casper and sell mattresses directly to consumers, and Kickstarter allows people to organize a crowdfunding campaign.
Jobs told the publication Wired in 1996: “the People will stop going to a bunch of stores. They will start to buy things on the Internet. A huge company that won’t pay attention to these changes will be seriously affected”.
Now that we see how Walmart is closing its stores, while Amazon continues to earn billions of dollars in online sales, the first company can’t say that nobody warned them.
Ordering a car online
Another shocking revelation from an interview with Wired was that jobs predicted the emergence of Tesla — or, at least, the business model of Tesla. “Take the car dealerships. So much money is spent on product catalog — billions and billions of dollars…And usually, the car you want, in your desired color, in any case does not exist, so they have to haggle and wriggle. Wouldn’t it be easier to get rid of all this diversity? Just to offer one white car and maybe a laser disc, where you could look at other ways of painting. Then you order your car and get it in a week,” said jobs.
Today in physical stores Tesla almost no cars. Instead potential buyers can see samples of the cars and then make a reservation through the Internet, where you can configure the necessary options. Now Tesla closes some of their physical stores in an effort to reduce costs as the transition to online sales, repeating previously done jobs predictions about e-Commerce.
The stagnation of the PC market
Jobs Wired predicted that the desktop market is waiting for “the dark ages over the next 10 years.” Today, PC sales continue to decline.
“Eventually, Microsoft will crumble because of complacency, and maybe some new things will appear,” he told Wired. “But that’s not gonna happen until there is some fundamental technological shift”. According to the International Data Corporation, in the last holiday quarter shipments of traditional PCs fell by 3.7% yoy. However, with the forecast about the future of Microsoft jobs not yet guessed.
Before the invention of the tablet was still a lot of years, but apparently Steve jobs thought about this idea since 1983. It was then that in his speech at the International Design Conference in aspen, Steve jobs predicted that computers will become something more mobile. He speaks of the “incredible computer right in the book you will be able to bring to operate so that you can learn in five minutes.”
In his interview, which he gave at approximately the same time, the publication Newsweek”s Access, he added: “I always thought that it would be just amazing to have a little box, a sort of Board which you can carry right with you.”
In 1984, in an interview with Newsweek Access, published by The Daily Beast, jobs described computers as “agents” studying our interests, keeping our information, interacting with us and students to anticipate our every need, becoming what jobs himself called “a little friend inside that box”.
“You will tell them about themselves,” said jobs during the same interview, “And the computer will simply store all this information about you and will probably know that every Friday afternoon you will want to do something special, and perhaps these things need help.”
Twenty-five years later analogues Alexa and Siri have become indispensable digital assistants for millions of people.
Jobs also predicted that the use of mobile technologies people will start at an early age. In an interview with the magazine Access, jobs said that he sees a future where ten-year-olds receive a free device and comfortable with him.
The Influence Central study, conducted in 2016 shows that the average age when a child receives their first phone is 10.3 years. It is also consistent with the Nielsen study from 2017, which indicates that 45% of parents surveyed said they their children use a smartphone at the age of 10 to 12 years.
In 1996, when consumers have experienced sending and receiving your first emails, it seemed unimaginable that we operate with such volumes of information, which are not able to cope, despite the warnings of Steve jobs about the overload of information, which he reported in his interview with Wired in 1996.
In 2019 the average person now checks their phone 52 times a day, according to a consumer survey conducted by Deloitte.
Jobs stressed the need for providing consumers with ways to allocate the storage before the cloud servers.
“[The store] is an important moment in the world of desktop computers. But all this can go. You will not have to manage your storage. You don’t have to store so much” — said Steve jobs edition of Wired in 1996.
He added: “Seriously, I don’t keep too much data. I actively use email and the web, both of these technologies allow me to forget about managing your store. If to speak in fact, my favorite way to remind yourself to do something is to send yourself an email. Here is my vault.”
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