Using years of previous experience in the management of the business holding the President of the United States Donald trump is in accordance with the promises had adopted his usual for the owner of “aggressive marketing” in relation to the world outside of the United States.
However, as trump told after the introduction of the worldwide duty on steel and aluminium, the newspaper the Wall Street Journal, the unilateral imposition of fees on imported goods is “one of the most effective instruments of trade negotiations.” That is, the us leader, speaking everyday language, “ran over all the time” to then solve issues in the interests of him holding the “USA” each separately. And it really is a uncomplicated know-how in American foreign course, drawn from the daily practice of hard capitalism. Trump is convinced that in this way the States managed to reach a new agreement with Canada and Mexico, and believes that he will be able so to “curb” the European Union.
On the other hand, although the US is not easy of a trade war with China and the EU, these economic and financial confrontation — favorite projects trump. They are now very ambiguously sees the vast American establishment, which sanctions against Russia just prefer. So Donald Trump has to pay Congress for trade war expansion of anti-Russian sanctions.
The return of the sanctions against Iran, at first glance, as something not very fit in professed trump business pragmatism. In a situation with the rejection of the nuclear deal with Iran, as with the transfer of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, trump, it seems, changed favorite financial and economic pressure, trying sharply-politicized manner to enter clumsy ass to the middle East to “divide and conquer”. But in the middle East trump thought to put pressure in order to clear the way for agreements on his terms. Only here’s the thing: Iran after pressure trump refuses to dialogue with Washington, although it is unknown which party is more harmful.
Trump and China
Trump initially attempted to negotiate with Beijing on trade, and China has gone forward, even dropping on time to its market for American beef. China went along with sanctions against the DPRK. But then trump wanted to “curb” a strong competitor and switched to the language of sanctions. Hence the Memorandum “On the fight against economic aggression of China.” Before the start of the trade war China has been asked to avoid actions that might provoke further deterioration of bilateral relations and the resulting negative impact on the American economy. China — a nation with its own unique millennial experience the eternal overcoming of difficulties. Now under pressure from Washington, Beijing ishitryayutsya effectively reshape their trillion-dollar markets in Africa and Asia.
The U.S. presidential election is not far distant mountains, and Trump will have to show concrete results to pressure Beijing. Is a realistic option is to demonstrate the positive from international confrontation in the form of finding common ground with XI Jinping issued to electorate for results from a trade war with China. It is not excluded that the 45th President of the United States will move on these rails.
This August, trump announced that not to impose new duties against China, to, say, not to cause a price increase before Christmas.
Meanwhile, tensions with China have become one of the biggest reasons for pragmatic aspirations trump to buy Danish giant island of Greenland. Until the end nobody knows what is in Greenland, the amount of different minerals, but is extremely important that there is large established reserves of rare earth elements that China in connection with a trade war may cease to supply US, and these elements are widely used in industry, from smartphones to jet engines. In China is 85% of the world production capacity that allow you to turn rare earth ores into raw materials for the production of the final product. Currently, the production capacity of Chinese factories that profile five times faster than other leading manufacturers.
At the same time, according to some estimates 120 million tons of global reserves of rare-earth metal oxides in the subsoil of Greenland is 38.5 million tons. So, for the foreseeable future, the trump is perfectly reasonable to look for reasons for claims to Denmark, so that through the usual for the 45th President of the United States the pressure to bring the desired result in the form of transactions concerning Greenland.
Trump and the European Union
Exacerbating the commercial, political and military differences with the European Union, trump also tries to prevent commissioning of the pipeline “Nord stream — 2”, embarked on the expansion of us exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe. Trump called NATO “legacy” and demanded that “many countries to pay huge sums for the previous years.” Of particular disappointment at the required 2% of GDP for NATO needs observed in Germany. In this regard, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg “has no illusions that keep unity among 29 countries — members of NATO — an easy job”.
That is why the President of France Emmanuel macron publicly returned to the agenda the project of the European Union, relying on priority the role of France. He called Europe the main victim of the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty. And on this subject Emmanuel macron agreed with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Incidentally, the European Parliament in February 2017, supported the establishment of a common European army. All this causes concern in Washington.
Between Europe and the United States have differences on the question of regulation and taxation of major international digital companies: Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, etc. When the European Commission in 2018, presented plans for a new digital tax, trump spoke out “strongly against” the proposals, which primarily correlated with large digital companies. Gradually with the rapid growth of the influence of cyber technology in the global namespace up to their potential dominance in international politics, these differences between Washington and Brussels in some way not quite predictable to the parties becoming more critical.
At the G20 in Osaka on June 28-29 differences between the US and other G20 members on climate was reflected in a joint statement. All members of the “Twenty” except the States, declared its commitment to international agreements on climate, marked by the Treaty of Paris (2015).
Introducing in the past year worldwide import duties on steel (25%) and aluminium (10%) as strategically important for the US military industrial complex metals, at first trump was planning to make an exception in the first place for the countries of the European Union. In the end, Washington, guided by the entrepreneurial experience trump decided not to do the EU exemptions. Damage to the EU from increased U.S. duties on steel and aluminum is about 6.5 billion. Thus the US President has made it clear that from now on the European Union to America in the best case nothing more than a business partner. The EU responded quickly to the increase in U.S. duties. In response, the Europeans imposed a fee at the rate of 25% on goods from the United States.
In April 2019 President Donald trump has confirmed plans to introduce new duties on goods from the EU in response to EU subsidies to Airbus. A commercial dispute between the United States and European Union over government subsidies to the two largest aircraft companies in the world — Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EU) — reached a peak when the trump.
The Russian factor
Held in August the trump conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone, during which the American leader has offered assistance in extinguishing forest fires in Siberia and discussed prospects of trade cooperation on the basis of fresh applications of the 45th President of the States about the absence of interference for a rapprochement with Moscow seems to be encouraging on a hypothetical mitigation between the two countries. And the meeting between the two leaders at the end of June at the G20 in Osaka Japanese, at least showed a desire to find mutual solutions on critical international issues. And then the same trump signed the next package of anti-Russian sanctions. Did the President of the United States of their right hand does one thing and left the opposite? In General, hands the trump to search for settlement with the Kremlin concerning unleashed by the refusal of the court at the suit of the democratic party about the alleged “interference” of Russia in the elections. Previously deadlocked and the investigation of ex-spectacular Robert Mueller about the shady relations of Moscow with the current us President.
Now, however, Trump still was easier to sign a decree on the second batch of “chemical” anti-Russian restrictions, than to confront demanding that congressmen, because the specific obligations of the US President on new sanctions wave of essentially the same written in the first package of sanctions.
Does this mean that trump suddenly refused to soften with Moscow? I think this conclusion still does not reflect the real situation. On the contrary, for him, in anticipation of the inevitable approaching of the presidential election will need to show concrete results from pressure on Beijing and Moscow. The most realistic option to demonstrate the positive from international confrontation — negotiation process with the leaders of these countries issued to the electorate for the results from the initiated sanctions against Russia and a trade war with China.
Unlike Tehran, Moscow refuses to negotiate with Washington. Only the understanding of the pragmatic-meanings, largely applied, strategy, trump, most likely, give you a chance at some stage to use it is in the interests of the Russian geopolitical objectives. Only we must remember that the anti-inertia establishment in the United States is not going anywhere.
Pressure does not preclude attempts to negotiate
Much due to the fact that the trump in the conduct of international relations continues to use the same logic in the first place is not policy, and the owner of a large-scale holding company and the businessman. Trump sees international agreements as owner of win-win agreements that can if you suspect that difficulty in the performance of their individual items to throw away in the trash, notifying the business partner if it does not have to pay compensation. About as the 45th President of the United States did with respect to nuclear agreement with Iran. So he specifically brought to the point of no return INF Treaty, perhaps suggesting further under pressure to make Russia a similar agreement, but on the conditions of American dominance.
Thus, Donald trump applies to everyone and everything familiar to him, for decades the stereotype of the “cool” Manager of the business of the holding company, which by all available means up to hard “collision” — it affects the competitor, relying: the opponent is unable to withstand continual violent pressure will burst at the seams. However, all this does not prevent parallel to a handshake from a particular competitor, to sit with him at the negotiating table on topical issues rationally, so as not to miss a chance to bargain.
The upcoming presidential election in 2020 to trump something like the report of the President of the giant of the holding to its founders. However, in the run-up to these elections trump may try to reset the negative part of the baggage collected in the previous years of his reign, implying, of course, and the discontent of the American establishment US pressure on the European Union and China. And thus enjoy the opportunity for some probable mitigation with Moscow, which is the 45th President of the United States mentioned during the presidential race of 2016…
Author: Eugene Ben
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