Moscow, August 21 — “News. Economy” the Minister of trade United States Wilbur Ross said that the American companies will receive the license the continuation of the cooperation with Huawei for another 90 days. How events can develop, says Alex Urazaev, expert IK “ZERICH capital Management”.
It’s about the fact that the company Huawei threatens the national security of the United States appeared in the us media in mid-2018. Since then the company have had many unpleasant situations, from arrest financial Director of Huawei in the Canadian Vancouver airport prior to the introduction of the ban on cooperation with US companies.
A little bit about the chronology of events:
August 2018 — the US President Donald trump recommends to refrain from using Huawei equipment for U.S. government agencies, for the purpose of national security. According to trump, gadgets can spy on U.S. citizens;
— December 2018 — arrest at the airport in Vancouver (Canada), the daughter of the founder of Huawei, Banjo man, who is the chief financial officer of the company. The United States demanded the extradition of Anjou and to charge her to bypass the Iranian sanctions;
— may 2019 — making the trump of measures for the protection of telecommunications networks of the United States. Threat trump considered Chinese telecommunications giants Huawei and ZTE; the U.S. Department of Commerce makes the company a blacklist. With the Huawei refuse to work such giants as Google, Microsoft, Intel, Qualcomm and Panasonic.
After a short time the sanctions were postponed for three months until mid-August.
— August 2019 — introduction of restrictive measures is postponed for another 90 days
In the process of imposing sanctions and their subsequent transfer in the press went a lot of different news. The number of American companies spoke openly about the fact that they partially bypass the restrictions and continued delivery of a number of components, in particular, talked about this Intel and Qualcomm. According to the latest information from the media, the US company must be certified in the products supplied to Huawei, to convince regulatory authorities of the United States in that the products cannot be used for dual purposes and does not pose a threat to the privacy of US citizens.
Sanctions against Huawei became a bargaining chip in a trade war US-China. A number of US companies are lobbying for the suspension and lifting of sanctions prior to their full introduction, due to the reduction in sales and a potential reduction in profits. Also, a number of companies in a situation when sanctions will be imposed, afraid to suffer from retaliatory measures China, in particular this is evidenced by Tim cook, Apple CEO, according to the company, due to popular protest of citizens of China, Apple’s revenue in China fell 20% year-on-year.
Considering one of the last trump tweets: “Negotiations with China are continuing and agreements will, but not now”, and also a powerful lobby of American companies, there is reason to believe that sanctions on Huawei will continue to be delayed. Subject to the achievement of fundamental agreements with China, restrictions and all can be removed without entering into full force.
The American President is disadvantageous further escalation of the conflict, which could lead to the collapse of the markets ahead of elections in November 2020. Also, more and more different forces understand that trading in this confrontation there can be no winners, and it makes sense to think about further escalation. However, the behavior of the American President it is hard to predict, a quick solution is not visible, taking into account the fact that the August 20, 2019 Mike Pompeo said in an interview on CNBC that in addition to Huawei, there are other Chinese companies that may pose a threat to national security of the United States.
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