The only correct investment in Russia — children. The rest of the evil
Dollars instead of rubles
In mid-August 2019 the Central Bank of Russia has published statistics according to which citizens of Russia have dramatically increased the volume of deposits in foreign currency by 9% in just six months. Of course, this news is positive: then there is something to save, to the same return confidence to the banking system. Of course, not included in the message that the lion’s share of these Bank deposits is 5-6 credit institutions, and all the richer Russians prefer to keep their money in Western banks.
Ruble savings also increased, but by about the rate of inflation, i.e. a growth rate four times lower than that of foreign currency deposits. And it’s interesting because if you look at the dynamics of the ruble against the dollar and interest rates of our banks, the Deposit in roubles it turns out significantly cheaper. So investors obviously are not interested in the profitability and reliability. And this is a very interesting fact.
Over the last five years Russia has lost more than 450 banks, almost 60% of their prednamerennoe number. And the fact that people do carry money, says only one thing: they don’t see any other reasonable way to maintain and increase earnings.
So, please don’t tell me in the comments about the reliability of savings: people who are now mocking compensation for the lost in 1991, contributions may many interesting things to tell about the endless possibilities of the monopolist at weaning inherited funds. Now Sberbank looks quite unsinkable, but he also heads the ratings and spy on users with their Intrusive biometrics and unlimited rights to their mobile applications. So here you need to trust very, very carefully.
The question arises: is Russia once the country of the Industrialists and merchants, no more opportunities another way to invest your money? Answer: left. Our people keep in banks is about 30 billion rubles — an average of 200 thousand per capita. This, by the way, just one and a half times our debt to banks, services, utilities, tax authorities and other polite people. The Deposit insurance system allows you to keep savings to 1.4 million rubles with minimal costs — it is clear that in the case of some major socio-political disturbances she will collapse, but the relative stability it is possible to count on. But let’s see what happens if you go out of your comfort zone and try to invest without insurance.
In addition to deposits
People are richer, if for some reason can’t keep the money abroad, prefer to give money to companies for managing capital. These do not guarantee any percent — only the return of the invested amount. But the market is more active and freer banks, at 10% per annum in rubles then you can safely count on. No, put away your wallet, your 200 thousand of them do not interest entrance there much more expensive. There are, of course, management companies and for the poor, but the fate of the invested money there to predict easy. However, the rich also cry: “Lord” there in the 1990s, all around us.
But why share it with the “managing partner”, if you can invest yourself? To buy shares of stable companies and live in peace? What could threaten “Gazprom”, if other gas from Europe is still there? Or “Apple”, because the second a genius like Steve jobs, maybe not yet born? Of course, such an approach is ridiculous: when even such small fry as we are (with all due respect to yourself), you can call yourself a co-owner of a large company and even have her right to vote, it is obvious that with the economy that is not so. But one thing is certain: the eternal joint-stock companies does not exist. You be sure to throw — maybe two years, maybe in ten or fifteen years, as lucky. Gazprom, incidentally, never recovered from the shock of 2014, and Apple is now significantly cheaper than a year ago. You can, of course, not to expect perfect distant and can enjoy “buy — sell”, but with a probability of over 95%, sooner or later you will find yourself without savings.
So it may be better to depend only on himself? To invest in paper-backed labor eggheads in Cupertino or Mansi gas, and that you can touch. For example, the gold in the world is not enough in electronics to always be in demand. Now the Finance Ministry is thinking over the idea to release gold bullion from VAT — especially because there is no added value in it. But then you run into the dilemma of whether to keep the gold in the vaults of the Bank and with some probability not to get him back, like Germany, the US, or to spend money on security measures. And the prices for metal devil jump is unpredictable.
Gold can be replaced with items whose value only increases as time goes — copyright jewelry, art, collectible coins. A great choice provided that you are among the best experts in this field, otherwise you will probably have to be a sponsor of the real connoisseurs of cunning scams. Plus, again, problems with the storage of the collection. The time is now bright in the nineties was, perhaps, safer.
Of course, the Moscow (and Moscow region), real estate. Here it seems to be heading principal cash flows of citizens, managed to earn something. 3.5 million square meters, built in the capital in 2018, is already more than 600 billion rubles in a single year, but still have not paid off the mortgage other borrowers of the middle zero. If you add the Moscow region, Saint Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, we understand that we have a mass phenomenon: someone just moved in a more comfortable place (an investment in the future), someone buys an apartment for future use. Well, in 2014, real estate investors and not place of residence left before a broken trough: the dollar prices for apartments have fallen by more than half, and in the Moscow region even in rubles not everywhere reached the pre-crisis level. But the cost of “storage”, by contrast, is growing: there were adjustments to major repairs, removal of debris (often even from the apartments where nobody lives), shrugged the estate tax. And with the inviolability of property is all very bad: spread of fake transactions on electronic signatures under false pretenses demolished private homes, and recently on numerous requests of workers at the Federal level took property from million residents, promising to give them some other renovation.
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Ugly picture, isn’t it? Yes, this is the result of years of commodity management for the benefit of corporations.
And judging by honorable discharge down in the foot of Sergei Glazyev from the post of adviser to the President in the foreseeable future nothing will change. And only one investment, we will not be able to take.
Children are the most worthy and the best investment in our long-suffering men of the country. Meanwhile, the birth rate, especially in the ethnically Russian regions, becomes disastrously low, despite the government’s attempts to buy us children allowances and maternity capital. And in some sense even an honor for our nation that we ignore generous promises.
And yet to bear and raise need. It’s a long time. It is expensive. This is great. Correctly in Russian educated person is the best guarantee for their parents in old age. Even with the despicable financial point of view, a good education can pay off for parents, to say nothing about human relationships! Just don’t push children hoping to make them millionaires, do not forget that children are people, not a tool to meet your ambitions and plumbing rather support their mothers than Bank clerks. Yes, in our country, there is no reliability, no clear future, we release children in a complex insecure world. And let them get what we are not able to make this world, that Russia is better. Including for investment, which they hope will be more than we have.
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